TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 86¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

-$280.81

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 85.5¢

+76% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares14,742

Combined PnL+$246.22

Yes4 traders

Total Value$794.13

Total Shares3,813

Combined PnL-$527.03

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 73.5¢	$4.9K	$3.7K	$-1.2K	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 35.2¢	$2.5K	$3.6K	+$1.1K	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 33.9¢	$353.46	$828.13	+$474.67	50% 8820-8762 (17582)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 57.9¢	$671.49	$579.61	-$91.88	50% 7766-7815 (15581)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 60¢	$600	$500	-$100	51% 983-935 (1918)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 19¢	$476.87	$476.87	+$0	59% 13939-9669 (23608)
CA Cannae	Noavg 27¢	$120.32	$222.5	+$102.19	53% 13584-12026 (25610)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 61.6¢	$676.07	$196.87	-$479.2	51% 6573-6335 (12908)
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 72.9¢	$162.56	$111.5	-$51.06	56% 6364-5100 (11464)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.8¢	$5.65	$8.89	+$3.23	53% 1872-1637 (3509)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 27¢	$1.35	$2.5	+$1.15	57% 1491-1104 (2595)

RN1

Invested

$4,913.12

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,530.49

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

SnakeBall

Invested

$353.46

Value

$828.13

PnL

+$474.67

Record

50%

8820-8762 (17582)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$671.49

Value

$579.61

PnL

-$91.88

Record

50%

7766-7815 (15581)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$600

Value

$500

PnL

-$100

Record

51%

983-935 (1918)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$476.87

Value

$476.87

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

13939-9669 (23608)

Cannae

Invested

$120.32

Value

$222.5

PnL

+$102.19

Record

53%

13584-12026 (25610)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$676.07

Value

$196.87

PnL

-$479.2

Record

51%

6573-6335 (12908)

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$162.56

Value

$111.5

PnL

-$51.06

Record

56%

6364-5100 (11464)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.65

Value

$8.89

PnL

+$3.23

Record

53%

1872-1637 (3509)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.35

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$1.15

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.