Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 55¢ · $800 held · ends Oct 25

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$800.23

Combined PnL

$18.66

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 54.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$769.08

Total Shares1,351

Combined PnL+$19.11

Yes1 trader

Total Value$31.16

Total Shares72

Combined PnL-$0.45

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 55.7¢	$609.82	$600.12	+$15.63	58% 31334-22653 (53987)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Noavg 54¢	$58.57	$61.82	+$3.25	69% 4202-1899 (6101)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 56.8¢	$60.85	$61.07	+$0.22	54% 13658-11474 (25132)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 56¢	$46.07	$46.07	+$0	53% 13537-11986 (25523)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 43.6¢	$31.6	$31.16	-$0.45	52% 16123-14661 (30784)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$609.82

Value

$600.12

PnL

+$15.63

Record

58%

31334-22653 (53987)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Invested

$58.57

Value

$61.82

PnL

+$3.25

Record

69%

4202-1899 (6101)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$60.85

Value

$61.07

PnL

+$0.22

Record

54%

13658-11474 (25132)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$46.07

Value

$46.07

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

13537-11986 (25523)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.6

Value

$31.16

PnL

-$0.45

Record

52%

16123-14661 (30784)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.