SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 6.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 96¢ · $73 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 67%
$73.43
$3.68
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 91¢ | $49.14 | $51.84 | +$2.7 | 51% 6631-6378 (13009) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 91¢ | $20.22 | $21.33 | +$1.11 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 6¢ | $0.38 | $0.26 | -$0.13 | 50% 8893-8828 (17721) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.