SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 5.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Over1¢Under99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$247.35

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 98.8¢

+17% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,109

Combined PnL+$75.97

Over2 traders

Total Value$372.45

Total Shares4,083

Combined PnL-$323.32

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 85.5¢	$749.92	$802.51	+$52.59	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
0X 0x5415e0326703e29A16f6B260Ce3C85692EF0F764-1781687530226CTR	Overavg 17¢	$680	$360	-$320	37% 154-257 (411)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 79.7¢	$78.15	$89.18	+$11.03	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 79¢	$49.77	$57.33	+$7.56	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
SA Saber-greed<$100	Underavg 83¢	$44.21	$48.47	+$4.26	59% 2279-1583 (3862)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 88¢	$15.4	$15.93	+$0.53	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$15.77	$12.45	-$3.32	61% 4558-2887 (7445)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$749.92

Value

$802.51

PnL

+$52.59

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

0x5415e0326703e29A16f6B260Ce3C85692EF0F764-1781687530226CTR

Over

Invested

$680

Value

$360

PnL

-$320

Record

37%

154-257 (411)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$78.15

Value

$89.18

PnL

+$11.03

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$49.77

Value

$57.33

PnL

+$7.56

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

Saber-greed<$100

Under

Invested

$44.21

Value

$48.47

PnL

+$4.26

Record

59%

2279-1583 (3862)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$15.4

Value

$15.93

PnL

+$0.53

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.77

Value

$12.45

PnL

-$3.32

Record

61%

4558-2887 (7445)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.