Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (72%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 28¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 25

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

-$255.05

Smart Money Entry

36¢ → 28¢

-22% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares23,869

Combined PnL-$236.65

Under6 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares10,878

Combined PnL-$18.4

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IM impaulCTR	Overavg 36¢	$7.6K	$7.3K	-$210	62% 179-110 (289)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 64.9¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$12.47	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
RN1	Underavg 64¢	$977.59	$992.87	+$7.64	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 62.2¢	$936.67	$979.61	+$42.94	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 36¢	$911.95	$886.62	-$25.33	41% 514-750 (1264)
MY myxi	Underavg 71.4¢	$660.01	$601.25	-$58.76	67% 266-129 (395)
0xheavy888	Underavg 65.6¢	$493.64	$489.38	-$7.66	56% 6365-5100 (11465)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 64.7¢	$855.49	$372.09	+$9.92	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 64¢	$295.22	$309.81	+$15.84	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64¢	$160	$162.5	+$3.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 32.1¢	$135.22	$147.31	+$12.09
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 64.1¢	$216.42	$219.56	+$3.15	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.1¢	$148.59	$150.66	+$2.07
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.5¢	$67.83	$68.9	+$1.07
SocialistaCTR	Overavg 35¢	$105	$105	-$1.5	62% 2264-1416 (3680)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$11.52	$12.24	+$0.18	61% 4553-2878 (7431)

impaulCTR

Over

Invested

$7,560

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$210

Record

62%

179-110 (289)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,868.48

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$12.47

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

RN1

Under

Invested

$977.59

Value

$992.87

PnL

+$7.64

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$936.67

Value

$979.61

PnL

+$42.94

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$911.95

Value

$886.62

PnL

-$25.33

Record

41%

514-750 (1264)

myxi

Under

Invested

$660.01

Value

$601.25

PnL

-$58.76

Record

67%

266-129 (395)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$493.64

Value

$489.38

PnL

-$7.66

Record

56%

6365-5100 (11465)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$855.49

Value

$372.09

PnL

+$9.92

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$295.22

Value

$309.81

PnL

+$15.84

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

Both legs:

Under$16064¢+$3.75

Over$135.2232.1¢+$12.09

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$216.42

Value

$219.56

PnL

+$3.15

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

Both legs:

Under$148.5964.1¢+$2.07

Over$67.8334.5¢+$1.07

SocialistaCTR

Over

Invested

$105

Value

$105

PnL

-$1.5

Record

62%

2264-1416 (3680)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.52

Value

$12.24

PnL

+$0.18

Record

61%

4553-2878 (7431)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.0%

28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$233.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

333.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.