Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (74%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 26¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$47.59

Smart Money Entry

26.9¢ → 26¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,050

Combined PnL+$162.03

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares5,402

Combined PnL-$209.62

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MR MrBently	Overavg 67¢	$998.3	$1.1K	+$149	52% 457-414 (871)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 28.7¢	$936.33	$749.44	-$186.89	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Overavg 81.8¢	$527.76	$467.52	-$60.24	65% 12556-6677 (19233)
└ Over leg	Overavg 81.8¢	$311	$281.18	-$29.82
└ Under leg	Underavg 30.2¢	$216.76	$186.33	-$30.43
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 24¢	$397.15	$386.25	-$11.38	53% 13585-12026 (25611)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 93¢	$345	$307.5	-$37.5	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
└ Over leg	Overavg 93¢	$232.5	$192.5	-$40
└ Under leg	Underavg 22.5¢	$112.5	$115	+$2.5
Socialista	Overavg 76¢	$228	$231	+$3	62% 2264-1416 (3680)
FO fooooolCTR	Underavg 23.8¢	$149.76	$144.55	-$5.21	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Overavg 74.9¢	$127.19	$130.34	+$3.15	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 69¢	$59.34	$66.22	+$6.88	58% 1698-1223 (2921)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$26.66	$19.78	-$6.88	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
GG GGLPL<$100	Overavg 77¢	$19.67	$19.67	+$0	50% 617-615 (1232)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$10.32	$9.89	-$0.43	75% 2665-901 (3566)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$4.19	$5.35	+$1.16	59% 13959-9681 (23640)

MrBently

Over

Invested

$998.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$149

Record

52%

457-414 (871)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$936.33

Value

$749.44

PnL

-$186.89

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Over

Invested

$527.76

Value

$467.52

PnL

-$60.24

Record

65%

12556-6677 (19233)

Both legs:

Over$31181.8¢-$29.82

Under$216.7630.2¢-$30.43

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$397.15

Value

$386.25

PnL

-$11.38

Record

53%

13585-12026 (25611)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$345

Value

$307.5

PnL

-$37.5

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

Both legs:

Over$232.593¢-$40

Under$112.522.5¢+$2.5

Socialista

Over

Invested

$228

Value

$231

PnL

+$3

Record

62%

2264-1416 (3680)

fooooolCTR

Under

Invested

$149.76

Value

$144.55

PnL

-$5.21

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

LeLynxMalynx

Over

Invested

$127.19

Value

$130.34

PnL

+$3.15

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

$59.34

Value

$66.22

PnL

+$6.88

Record

58%

1698-1223 (2921)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.66

Value

$19.78

PnL

-$6.88

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

GGLPL<$100

Over

Invested

$19.67

Value

$19.67

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

617-615 (1232)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.32

Value

$9.89

PnL

-$0.43

Record

75%

2665-901 (3566)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.19

Value

$5.35

PnL

+$1.16

Record

59%

13959-9681 (23640)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.