SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 94¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25

Over94¢Under6¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

-$95.4

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 93.8¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over94%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares8,300

Combined PnL+$78.73

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares25,707

Combined PnL-$174.13

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 91¢	$7.3K	$7.3K	+$79.89	61% 4553-2878 (7431)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 8.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$37.72	53% 13585-12026 (25611)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 9.8¢	$845.39	$700.33	-$145.05	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
Socialista	Overavg 91¢	$273	$276	-$1.5	62% 2264-1416 (3680)
RN1CTR	Underavg 8¢	$267.99	$267.99	+$16.75	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 8.9¢	$41.17	$36.96	-$4.21	75% 2665-901 (3566)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$35.1	$31.2	-$3.9	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
AN Anon455<$100	Overavg 89¢	$10.11	$10.45	+$0.34	56% 2033-1584 (3617)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$7,269.99

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$79.89

Record

61%

4553-2878 (7431)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$1,109.07

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$37.72

Record

53%

13585-12026 (25611)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$845.39

Value

$700.33

PnL

-$145.05

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

Socialista

Over

Invested

$273

Value

$276

PnL

-$1.5

Record

62%

2264-1416 (3680)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$267.99

Value

$267.99

PnL

+$16.75

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.17

Value

$36.96

PnL

-$4.21

Record

75%

2665-901 (3566)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.1

Value

$31.2

PnL

-$3.9

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

Anon455<$100

Over

Invested

$10.11

Value

$10.45

PnL

+$0.34

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.1%

93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.