Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (83%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: SC Freiburg O/U 1.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 17¢ · $585 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
3
Over 100%
$585.19
-$240.51
35.7¢ → 17¢
-52% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR | Overavg 37¢ | $740 | $520 | -$220 | 41% 514-751 (1265) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $50 | $32.69 | -$17.31 | 51% 6631-6378 (13009) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $35.71 | $32.5 | -$3.21 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.