Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold FC Bayern München (50%) · FC Bayern München at 99¢ · $74K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
FC Bayern München
4
FC Bayern München 50%
$74.2K
-$191.69
98.4¢ → 98.8¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFC Bayern München at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0F 0F62 | FC Bayern Münchenavg 98.4¢ | $70.9K | $71.2K | -$201.23 | 52% 1952-1774 (3726) |
BU BunCaCham | FC Bayern Münchenavg 98.3¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$16.31 | 98% 2111-50 (2161) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | SC Freiburgavg 1.6¢ | $65.88 | $59.7 | -$6.18 | 50% 7770-7819 (15589) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | SC Freiburgavg 1.7¢ | $1.87 | $1.27 | -$0.6 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
Invested
$70,863.31
Value
$71.2K
PnL
-$201.23
Record
52%
1952-1774 (3726)
Invested
$2,948.99
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$16.31
Record
98%
2111-50 (2161)
Invested
$65.88
Value
$59.7
PnL
-$6.18
Record
50%
7770-7819 (15589)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.87
Value
$1.27
PnL
-$0.6
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.