Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold SC Freiburg, while the market favors FC Bayern München (94%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold SC Freiburg (83%) · SC Freiburg at 6.5¢ · $913 held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
SC Freiburg
6
SC Freiburg 83%
$912.98
$684.16
5.7¢ → 6.5¢
+15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidSC Freiburg at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors FC Bayern München 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | SC Freiburgavg 6¢ | $62.4 | $405.6 | +$343.2 | 50% 8728-8659 (17387) |
CA CannaeCTR | SC Freiburgavg 5¢ | $41.31 | $322.21 | +$280.9 | 53% 13553-11995 (25548) |
 HRTrading<$100 | FC Bayern Münchenavg 94¢ | $62.04 | $61.71 | -$0.33 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | SC Freiburgavg 6¢ | $54.86 | $59.43 | +$4.57 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | SC Freiburgavg 5¢ | $6.81 | $53.12 | +$46.31 | 55% 4205-3402 (7607) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | SC Freiburgavg 5¢ | $1.4 | $10.92 | +$9.52 | 75% 2629-893 (3522) |
Invested
$62.4
Value
$405.6
PnL
+$343.2
Record
50%
8728-8659 (17387)
Invested
$41.31
Value
$322.21
PnL
+$280.9
Record
53%
13553-11995 (25548)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$62.04
Value
$61.71
PnL
-$0.33
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
Invested
$54.86
Value
$59.43
PnL
+$4.57
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Invested
$6.81
Value
$53.12
PnL
+$46.31
Record
55%
4205-3402 (7607)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$10.92
PnL
+$9.52
Record
75%
2629-893 (3522)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.