Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold SC Freiburg (33%) · SC Freiburg at 77¢ · $941 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
SC Freiburg
6
SC Freiburg 33%
$941.43
$32.92
75.5¢ → 77¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSC Freiburg at 77%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | SC Freiburgavg 75.4¢ | $521.4 | $529 | +$7.6 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | FC Bayern Münchenavg 23¢ | $159.44 | $162.9 | +$3.47 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | FC Bayern Münchenavg 26¢ | $130 | $150 | +$20 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | FC Bayern Münchenavg 29¢ | $57.42 | $59.4 | +$1.98 | 48% 912-976 (1888) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | FC Bayern Münchenavg 30¢ | $21 | $21 | +$0 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
 HRTrading<$100 | SC Freiburgavg 77¢ | $19.25 | $19.13 | -$0.13 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
Invested
$521.4
Value
$529
PnL
+$7.6
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$159.44
Value
$162.9
PnL
+$3.47
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$130
Value
$150
PnL
+$20
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Invested
$57.42
Value
$59.4
PnL
+$1.98
Record
48%
912-976 (1888)
Invested
$21
Value
$21
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
13697-11517 (25214)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.25
Value
$19.13
PnL
-$0.13
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.