Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

4 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold SC Freiburg (27%) · SC Freiburg at 59¢ · $66K held · ends Oct 25

FC Bayern München42¢SC Freiburg58¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SC Freiburg

Consensus Traders

SC Freiburg 27%

Total Value

$65.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 58.5¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSC Freiburg at 59%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SC Freiburg

4 of 15 top traders (27%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Bayern München42%

SC Freiburg59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SC Freiburg4 traders

Total Value$33.7K

Total Shares67,925

Combined PnL$-3.9K

FC Bayern München11 traders

Total Value$32.2K

Total Shares66,661

Combined PnL+$2.6K

SC Freiburg — 27%FC Bayern München — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rabbitfoot1	SC Freiburgavg 55.4¢	$37.3K	$33.3K	$-3.9K	53% 876-768 (1644)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 44.8¢	$10.8K	$12.1K	+$1.4K	47% 1955-2177 (4132)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 44¢	$7.7K	$8.9K	+$1.1K	50% 1770-1781 (3551)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 43.6¢	$5.9K	$5.5K	-$419.87	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
HI hi774cCTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 44¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$319.74	55% 4205-3402 (7607)
CA CannaeCTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 44.5¢	$935.31	$1.1K	+$119.38	53% 13553-11995 (25548)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 46¢	$920	$1.0K	+$90	69% 4216-1907 (6123)
VeryLucky888CTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 44.5¢	$890	$724.1	-$58.72	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
UP UpTheBlues	SC Freiburgavg 58¢	$300.52	$303.32	+$2.8	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
SL slimjoeCTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 44.9¢	$219.18	$212.28	-$6.9	52% 5323-4932 (10255)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 45.4¢	$153.35	$166.27	+$15.25	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 43¢	$30.1	$30.45	+$0.35	75% 2629-893 (3522)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	SC Freiburgavg 53¢	$16.65	$15.55	-$1.1	50% 7629-7782 (15411)
0X 0x5415e0326703e29A16f6B260Ce3C85692EF0F764-1781687530226CTR<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 49¢	$9.8	$10.1	+$0.3	37% 151-253 (404)
HRTrading<$100	SC Freiburgavg 52.4¢	$2.49	$2.35	-$0.14	58% 1363-997 (2360)

rabbitfoot1

SC Freiburg

Invested

$37,295.76

Value

$33.3K

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

53%

876-768 (1644)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$10,760

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

47%

1955-2177 (4132)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$7,738.07

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

1770-1781 (3551)

GoalLineGhostCTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$5,897.8

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$419.87

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

hi774cCTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$2,164.39

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$319.74

Record

55%

4205-3402 (7607)

CannaeCTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$935.31

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$119.38

Record

53%

13553-11995 (25548)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$920

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$90

Record

69%

4216-1907 (6123)

VeryLucky888CTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$890

Value

$724.1

PnL

-$58.72

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

UpTheBlues

SC Freiburg

Invested

$300.52

Value

$303.32

PnL

+$2.8

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

slimjoeCTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$219.18

Value

$212.28

PnL

-$6.9

Record

52%

5323-4932 (10255)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$153.35

Value

$166.27

PnL

+$15.25

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$30.1

Value

$30.45

PnL

+$0.35

Record

75%

2629-893 (3522)

LuckyLoo<$100

SC Freiburg

Invested

$16.65

Value

$15.55

PnL

-$1.1

Record

50%

7629-7782 (15411)

0x5415e0326703e29A16f6B260Ce3C85692EF0F764-1781687530226CTR<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$9.8

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

37%

151-253 (404)

HRTrading<$100

SC Freiburg

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.14

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

Research grade

NeutralSC Freiburg at 59%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

SC Freiburg

4 of 15 top traders (27%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SC Freiburg wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.