FC Bayern München leading at halftime?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$1.2K
$355.9
60.1¢ → 100¢
+66% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NordhavenCap | Yesavg 50¢ | $251.4 | $572.98 | +$321.58 | 58% 1703-1224 (2927) |
KM kmak1 | Yesavg 88¢ | $218.89 | $252.84 | +$33.95 | 84% 127-25 (152) |
LS LSB1 | Yesavg 57.2¢ | $152.28 | $236.74 | +$84.46 | 77% 1621-473 (2094) |
FO Forecastication2 | Yesavg 52¢ | $64.53 | $110.36 | +$45.83 | 61% 4558-2887 (7445) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 44.9¢ | $174.67 | $42.8 | -$131.87 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
US User7429<$100 | Yesavg 78¢ | $13.81 | $15.75 | +$1.95 | 57% 5976-4437 (10413) |
Invested
$251.4
Value
$572.98
PnL
+$321.58
Record
58%
1703-1224 (2927)
Invested
$218.89
Value
$252.84
PnL
+$33.95
Record
84%
127-25 (152)
Invested
$152.28
Value
$236.74
PnL
+$84.46
Record
77%
1621-473 (2094)
Invested
$64.53
Value
$110.36
PnL
+$45.83
Record
61%
4558-2887 (7445)
Invested
$174.67
Value
$42.8
PnL
-$131.87
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
Invested
$13.81
Value
$15.75
PnL
+$1.95
Record
57%
5976-4437 (10413)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.