Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 84¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$7.2K
$37.6
85.1¢ → 83.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88 | Noavg 86¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$19.02 | 65% 1523-816 (2339) |
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276 | Noavg 84¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$15 | 68% 1661-767 (2428) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 15.2¢ | $704.28 | $716.81 | +$12.53 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $608.68 | $628.97 | +$20.29 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $57.05 | $57.28 | +$0.23 | 53% 13553-11995 (25548) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $28.9 | $29.41 | +$0.51 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $1.04 | $1.07 | +$0.03 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
Invested
$3,270.67
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$19.02
Record
65%
1523-816 (2339)
Invested
$2,519.99
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$15
Record
68%
1661-767 (2428)
Invested
$704.28
Value
$716.81
PnL
+$12.53
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$608.68
Value
$628.97
PnL
+$20.29
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Invested
$57.05
Value
$57.28
PnL
+$0.23
Record
53%
13553-11995 (25548)
Invested
$28.9
Value
$29.41
PnL
+$0.51
Record
54%
13697-11517 (25214)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.07
PnL
+$0.03
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.