Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: 1st Half O/U 1.5

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 47¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 25

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$123.65

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 46.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,567

Combined PnL-$123.75

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.64

Total Shares3

Combined PnL+$0.11

Under — 86%Over — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$64.07	50% 7766-7815 (15581)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 48¢	$960	$910	-$50	69% 4273-1923 (6196)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$285	$180.79	+$0.73	58% 31709-22957 (54666)
FO Forecastication2ARB<$100	Underavg 48¢	$129.67	$125.43	-$4.24	61% 4541-2874 (7415)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$98.4	$93.28	-$5.13
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$31.27	$32.16	+$0.89
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Underavg 47¢	$124.33	$120.36	-$3.97	47% 1983-2212 (4195)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 47.4¢	$117.15	$112.39	-$4.77	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$52.64	$50.96	-$1.68	52% 5359-4977 (10336)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 51¢	$1.53	$1.64	+$0.11	57% 1491-1104 (2595)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$1,230.12

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$64.07

Record

50%

7766-7815 (15581)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$960

Value

$910

PnL

-$50

Record

69%

4273-1923 (6196)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$285

Value

$180.79

PnL

+$0.73

Record

58%

31709-22957 (54666)

Forecastication2ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$129.67

Value

$125.43

PnL

-$4.24

Record

61%

4541-2874 (7415)

Both legs:

Under$98.448¢-$5.13

Over$31.2753¢+$0.89

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Under

Invested

$124.33

Value

$120.36

PnL

-$3.97

Record

47%

1983-2212 (4195)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$117.15

Value

$112.39

PnL

-$4.77

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.64

Value

$50.96

PnL

-$1.68

Record

52%

5359-4977 (10336)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$1.53

Value

$1.64

PnL

+$0.11

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.