Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 19¢ · $21K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 43%
2 arb excluded
$21.1K
$3.2K
52.8¢ → 18.5¢
-65% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuzzzerCTR | Yesavg 52.1¢ | $9.7K | $11.0K | +$1.3K | 44% 94-118 (212) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 38.9¢ | $2.4K | $4.5K | +$2.1K | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 42.2¢ | $4.3K | $4.2K | -$126.98 | 50% 8893-8828 (17721) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Yesavg 59.3¢ | $705.87 | $637.52 | -$68.36 | 51% 6631-6378 (13009) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52.3¢ | $335.46 | $493.83 | +$158.38 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 59.3¢ | $370.42 | $143.68 | -$226.73 | |
YO yohan75CTR | Yesavg 68¢ | $385.35 | $357.01 | -$2.83 | 52% 237-221 (458) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Yesavg 68¢ | $272 | $236 | -$36 | 56% 6385-5115 (11500) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 31.5¢ | $115.66 | $134.44 | +$18.78 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 31.5¢ | $78.26 | $101.99 | +$23.73 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 68¢ | $37.4 | $32.45 | -$4.95 | |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 32.4¢ | $35.2 | $41.51 | +$6.31 | 53% 13609-12050 (25659) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $9.29 | $13.83 | +$4.54 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
Invested
$9,690.48
Value
$11.0K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
44%
94-118 (212)
Invested
$2,422.08
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$4,299.92
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$126.98
Record
50%
8893-8828 (17721)
Invested
$705.87
Value
$637.52
PnL
-$68.36
Record
51%
6631-6378 (13009)
Both legs:
Invested
$385.35
Value
$357.01
PnL
-$2.83
Record
52%
237-221 (458)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$272
Value
$236
PnL
-$36
Record
56%
6385-5115 (11500)
Invested
$115.66
Value
$134.44
PnL
+$18.78
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.2
Value
$41.51
PnL
+$6.31
Record
53%
13609-12050 (25659)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.29
Value
$13.83
PnL
+$4.54
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.