Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 69¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$5.6K
$0.12
68¢ → 69¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 69%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 68¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$0.12 | 58% 31334-22653 (53987) |
CA Cannae | Yesavg 68¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$0 | 53% 13537-11986 (25523) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 68¢ | $180.36 | $180.36 | +$0 | 65% 1520-814 (2334) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $61.73 | $61.73 | -$0 | 54% 13658-11474 (25132) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 31¢ | $33.17 | $33.17 | -$0 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 68¢ | $28.56 | $28.56 | +$0 |
VeryLucky888Invested
$3,411.66
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$0.12
Record
58%
31334-22653 (53987)
Invested
$1,915.37
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
13537-11986 (25523)
Invested
$180.36
Value
$180.36
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
1520-814 (2334)
Invested
$61.73
Value
$61.73
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
13658-11474 (25132)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.