PFC CSKA Sofia vs. PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 2.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 59¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
$9.2K
$660.93
51.5¢ → 58.5¢
+14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 59%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 47.2¢ | $3.0K | $3.7K | +$706.88 | 51% 22075-21479 (43554) |
SH Shimi1234CTR | Overavg 45.2¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$67.79 | 39% 100-155 (255) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 54.4¢ | $832.9 | $849.56 | +$16.65 | 50% 11010-11181 (22191) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 61.8¢ | $715.29 | $806.41 | +$91.12 | 60% 40137-26767 (66904) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 54¢ | $675.76 | $688.28 | +$12.51 | 50% 9397-9321 (18718) |
SA Saber-greedCTR | Overavg 52.5¢ | $758.68 | $643.49 | -$115.19 | 59% 2427-1678 (4105) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 46¢ | $116.13 | $132.54 | +$16.41 | 58% 37814-27550 (65364) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 46.5¢ | $2.56 | $2.89 | +$0.33 | 55% 2167-1782 (3949) |
Invested
$2,956.27
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$706.88
Record
51%
22075-21479 (43554)
Invested
$2,500
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$67.79
Record
39%
100-155 (255)
Invested
$832.9
Value
$849.56
PnL
+$16.65
Record
50%
11010-11181 (22191)
Invested
$715.29
Value
$806.41
PnL
+$91.12
Record
60%
40137-26767 (66904)
Invested
$675.76
Value
$688.28
PnL
+$12.51
Record
50%
9397-9321 (18718)
Invested
$758.68
Value
$643.49
PnL
-$115.19
Record
59%
2427-1678 (4105)
VeryLucky888Invested
$116.13
Value
$132.54
PnL
+$16.41
Record
58%
37814-27550 (65364)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.56
Value
$2.89
PnL
+$0.33
Record
55%
2167-1782 (3949)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.