Will PFC CSKA Sofia win on 2026-10-26?
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 73¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 22%
$2.6K
-$255.39
58.7¢ → 72.5¢
+24% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 73%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 58.6¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$49.58 | 51% 22075-21479 (43554) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 28.1¢ | $483.32 | $463.98 | -$19.34 | 50% 17590-17918 (35508) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 57.8¢ | $587.7 | $300.17 | -$287.53 | 60% 40137-26767 (66904) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 70.3¢ | $10.55 | $10.73 | +$0.17 | 54% 5767-4855 (10622) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $9.18 | $10.2 | +$1.02 | 50% 11010-11181 (22191) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 56.1¢ | $9 | $3.69 | +$0.36 | 58% 37814-27550 (65364) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $2.6 | $3.2 | +$0.6 | 52% 5764-5381 (11145) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.1¢ | $3.25 | $2.97 | -$0.28 | 55% 2167-1782 (3949) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $0.37 | $0.4 | +$0.03 | 50% 9397-9321 (18718) |
Invested
$1,794.41
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$49.58
Record
51%
22075-21479 (43554)
Invested
$483.32
Value
$463.98
PnL
-$19.34
Record
50%
17590-17918 (35508)
Invested
$587.7
Value
$300.17
PnL
-$287.53
Record
60%
40137-26767 (66904)
Invested
$10.55
Value
$10.73
PnL
+$0.17
Record
54%
5767-4855 (10622)
Invested
$9.18
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$1.02
Record
50%
11010-11181 (22191)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
$3.69
PnL
+$0.36
Record
58%
37814-27550 (65364)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
$3.2
PnL
+$0.6
Record
52%
5764-5381 (11145)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.25
Value
$2.97
PnL
-$0.28
Record
55%
2167-1782 (3949)
Invested
$0.37
Value
$0.4
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
9397-9321 (18718)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.