PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad leading at halftime?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 66¢ · $638 held · ended Oct 26

Yes34¢No66¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$637.66

Combined PnL

$0.55

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 65.8¢

-11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$199.1

Total Shares781

Combined PnL-$0.9

No4 traders

Total Value$438.56

Total Shares588

Combined PnL+$1.46

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR	Yesavg 25.6¢	$200	$199.1	-$0.9	28% 77-202 (279)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 74¢	$191.4	$192.7	+$1.29	50% 2208-2217 (4425)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 74.7¢	$112	$111.75	-$0.25	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$76.63	$76.66	+$0.03	51% 21869-21276 (43145)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 74¢	$57.07	$57.45	+$0.39	64% 993-568 (1561)

0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$199.1

PnL

-$0.9

Record

28%

77-202 (279)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$191.4

Value

$192.7

PnL

+$1.29

Record

50%

2208-2217 (4425)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$112

Value

$111.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$76.63

Value

$76.66

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

21869-21276 (43145)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$57.07

Value

$57.45

PnL

+$0.39

Record

64%

993-568 (1561)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.9%

65.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.