PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs. PFC Slavia Sofia: O/U 3.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 82¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$1.6K
$178.24
93.5¢ → 81.7¢
-13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 82%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 96.1¢ | $592.96 | $598.79 | +$5.83 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 91¢ | $563.86 | $501.9 | -$61.96 | 50% 9389-9311 (18700) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 9¢ | $237.3 | $500.97 | +$263.67 | 50% 17388-17711 (35099) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 4.4¢ | $59.99 | $30.34 | -$29.65 | 51% 21853-21263 (43116) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 18¢ | $6.34 | $6.7 | +$0.35 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 19¢ | $2.28 | $2.28 | +$0 | 55% 2155-1770 (3925) |
Invested
$592.96
Value
$598.79
PnL
+$5.83
Record
60%
39852-26467 (66319)
Invested
$563.86
Value
$501.9
PnL
-$61.96
Record
50%
9389-9311 (18700)
Invested
$237.3
Value
$500.97
PnL
+$263.67
Record
50%
17388-17711 (35099)
Invested
$59.99
Value
$30.34
PnL
-$29.65
Record
51%
21853-21263 (43116)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$6.34
Value
$6.7
PnL
+$0.35
Record
58%
37543-27331 (64874)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.28
Value
$2.28
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
2155-1770 (3925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.