PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs. PFC Slavia Sofia: O/U 2.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 61¢ · $572 held · ends Oct 26

Over40¢Under60¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$571.93

Combined PnL

-$6.16

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 60.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$446

Total Shares725

Combined PnL-$6.43

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.74

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.28

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 62.3¢	$408.18	$403.22	-$4.96	51% 21492-20930 (42422)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 61¢	$119.37	$122.19	+$2.81	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61¢	$73.81	$73.21	-$0.61
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.7¢	$45.56	$48.98	+$3.42
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 64¢	$27.28	$26.21	-$1.07	58% 37023-26943 (63966)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 63¢	$16.98	$16.57	-$0.4	50% 10665-10792 (21457)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$2.28	$2.43	+$0.16	55% 1577-1301 (2878)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$1.19	$1.31	+$0.12	55% 2064-1680 (3744)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$408.18

Value

$403.22

PnL

-$4.96

Record

51%

21492-20930 (42422)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$119.37

Value

$122.19

PnL

+$2.81

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

Both legs:

Under$73.8161¢-$0.61

Over$45.5636.7¢+$3.42

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$27.28

Value

$26.21

PnL

-$1.07

Record

58%

37023-26943 (63966)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$16.98

Value

$16.57

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

10665-10792 (21457)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.16

Record

55%

1577-1301 (2878)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$0.12

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.