PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs. PFC Slavia Sofia: O/U 1.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 65¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26

Over65¢Under35¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$85.43

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 65¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,762

Combined PnL+$85.55

Under2 traders

Total Value$8.93

Total Shares26

Combined PnL-$0.12

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 60.1¢	$635.31	$684.45	+$49.14	51% 21853-21263 (43116)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 60¢	$436.86	$473.27	+$36.41	50% 10896-11050 (21946)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$4.25	$4.5	+$0.26	58% 37543-27331 (64874)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$4.81	$4.43	-$0.38	50% 9389-9311 (18700)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$635.31

Value

$684.45

PnL

+$49.14

Record

51%

21853-21263 (43116)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$436.86

Value

$473.27

PnL

+$36.41

Record

50%

10896-11050 (21946)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.26

Record

58%

37543-27331 (64874)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.81

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

9389-9311 (18700)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.