Will PFC Slavia Sofia win on 2026-10-26?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 86¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$84.86

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 85.5¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,370

Combined PnL+$161.83

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares5,731

Combined PnL-$76.97

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MY myxi	Noavg 83¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$24.58	67% 291-143 (434)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 75.8¢	$819.76	$897.48	+$77.72	50% 10896-11050 (21946)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 76.9¢	$803.47	$862.13	+$58.66	60% 39852-26467 (66319)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 19.5¢	$499.18	$726.35	+$227.18	51% 21853-21263 (43116)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 24.8¢	$964.92	$662.12	-$302.8	50% 17388-17711 (35099)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 77¢	$14.01	$14.88	+$0.87	55% 2155-1770 (3925)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$9.5	$8	-$1.5	54% 5749-4837 (10586)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$1.18	$1.33	+$0.15	50% 9389-9311 (18700)

myxi

Invested

$1,020.07

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$24.58

Record

67%

291-143 (434)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$819.76

Value

$897.48

PnL

+$77.72

Record

50%

10896-11050 (21946)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$803.47

Value

$862.13

PnL

+$58.66

Record

60%

39852-26467 (66319)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$499.18

Value

$726.35

PnL

+$227.18

Record

51%

21853-21263 (43116)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$964.92

Value

$662.12

PnL

-$302.8

Record

50%

17388-17711 (35099)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$14.01

Value

$14.88

PnL

+$0.87

Record

55%

2155-1770 (3925)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.5

Value

PnL

-$1.5

Record

54%

5749-4837 (10586)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

9389-9311 (18700)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.