Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv win on 2026-10-26?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 48¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$1.5K
$58.93
58.6¢ → 48¢
-18% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 58.3¢ | $902.41 | $951.16 | +$48.75 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
BE BetzikoCTR | Noavg 58.3¢ | $120.64 | $134.51 | +$13.87 | 54% 5749-4837 (10586) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 59¢ | $118 | $111 | -$7 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 61.2¢ | $95.87 | $101.83 | +$5.96 | 51% 21853-21263 (43116) |
MY myxi<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $99.88 | $95.34 | -$4.54 | 67% 291-143 (434) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 41.1¢ | $92.28 | $94.39 | +$2.11 | 50% 10896-11050 (21946) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $9.71 | $9.48 | -$0.23 | 55% 2155-1770 (3925) |
Invested
$902.41
Value
$951.16
PnL
+$48.75
Record
60%
39852-26467 (66319)
Invested
$120.64
Value
$134.51
PnL
+$13.87
Record
54%
5749-4837 (10586)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$118
Value
$111
PnL
-$7
Record
58%
37543-27331 (64874)
Invested
$95.87
Value
$101.83
PnL
+$5.96
Record
51%
21853-21263 (43116)
Invested
$99.88
Value
$95.34
PnL
-$4.54
Record
67%
291-143 (434)
Invested
$92.28
Value
$94.39
PnL
+$2.11
Record
50%
10896-11050 (21946)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.71
Value
$9.48
PnL
-$0.23
Record
55%
2155-1770 (3925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.