PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv leading at halftime?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.9K
-$17.74
80¢ → 100¢
+25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 81¢ | $814.13 | $903.35 | +$89.22 | 51% 21853-21263 (43116) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 76.6¢ | $306.51 | $363.95 | +$57.44 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 81.1¢ | $299.14 | $328.18 | +$29.04 | 50% 10896-11050 (21946) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 18.8¢ | $439.57 | $221.57 | -$218 | 50% 17388-17711 (35099) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 24¢ | $84.18 | $108.73 | +$24.55 | 50% 9389-9311 (18700) |
Invested
$814.13
Value
$903.35
PnL
+$89.22
Record
51%
21853-21263 (43116)
Invested
$306.51
Value
$363.95
PnL
+$57.44
Record
60%
39852-26467 (66319)
Invested
$299.14
Value
$328.18
PnL
+$29.04
Record
50%
10896-11050 (21946)
Invested
$439.57
Value
$221.57
PnL
-$218
Record
50%
17388-17711 (35099)
Invested
$84.18
Value
$108.73
PnL
+$24.55
Record
50%
9389-9311 (18700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.