PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs. PFC Slavia Sofia: 1st Half O/U 1.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$4.4K
$104.32
83¢ → 100¢
+20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 14.2¢ | $614.62 | $2.1K | +$1.5K | 50% 17388-17711 (35099) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 85.8¢ | $2.8K | $1.7K | $-1.1K | 50% 9389-9311 (18700) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 73.8¢ | $516.64 | $360.58 | -$156.06 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 76.5¢ | $299.08 | $212.73 | -$86.35 | 50% 10896-11050 (21946) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 72.8¢ | $20.58 | $14.55 | -$6.03 | 55% 2155-1770 (3925) |
Invested
$614.62
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
50%
17388-17711 (35099)
Invested
$2,836.4
Value
$1.7K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
50%
9389-9311 (18700)
Invested
$516.64
Value
$360.58
PnL
-$156.06
Record
60%
39852-26467 (66319)
Invested
$299.08
Value
$212.73
PnL
-$86.35
Record
50%
10896-11050 (21946)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$20.58
Value
$14.55
PnL
-$6.03
Record
55%
2155-1770 (3925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.