Will PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs. PFC Slavia Sofia end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 51¢ · $132 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$131.7
-$6.55
60.6¢ → 51¢
-16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 58.4¢ | $79.61 | $77.73 | -$1.89 | 51% 21853-21263 (43116) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $27.6 | $23.68 | +$1 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.6¢ | $27.61 | $23.13 | -$4.48 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 65.8¢ | $7.31 | $6.22 | -$1.09 | 54% 5749-4837 (10586) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $1.04 | $0.94 | -$0.1 | 55% 2155-1770 (3925) |
Invested
$79.61
Value
$77.73
PnL
-$1.89
Record
51%
21853-21263 (43116)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$27.6
Value
$23.68
PnL
+$1
Record
58%
37543-27331 (64874)
Invested
$27.61
Value
$23.13
PnL
-$4.48
Record
60%
39852-26467 (66319)
Invested
$7.31
Value
$6.22
PnL
-$1.09
Record
54%
5749-4837 (10586)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.94
PnL
-$0.1
Record
55%
2155-1770 (3925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.