Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Up 56%
4 arb excluded
$5.9K
$-2.5K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 28 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.01 | 74% 101844-36246 (138090) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 58¢ | $860.74 | — | -$860.74 | 54% 14979-12584 (27563) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 35.7¢ | $418.32 | — | -$418.32 | 56% 13780-10787 (24567) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 46.3¢ | $328.87 | — | -$328.87 | 64% 57137-31956 (89093) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 55.7¢ | $744.91 | $737.95 | -$6.96 | 56% 7259-5596 (12855) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 53.4¢ | $340.93 | — | -$340.93 | 56% 13262-10620 (23882) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR | Downavg 56.3¢ | $208.45 | — | -$208.45 | 57% 9927-7438 (17365) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 41¢ | $213.92 | — | -$213.92 | 49% 4783-4930 (9713) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 64.8¢ | $266.01 | $245.6 | -$20.42 | 60% 11724-7667 (19391) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 95.3¢ | $149.58 | $157 | +$7.42 | 55% 43434-35853 (79287) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $198.15 | $281.5 | +$83.35 | 56% 12007-9267 (21274) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.1¢ | $71.59 | — | -$71.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45¢ | $126.55 | $281.5 | +$154.94 | |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $193.28 | $417.7 | +$224.42 | 55% 8181-6633 (14814) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 93¢ | $93 | — | -$93 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24¢ | $100.28 | $417.7 | +$317.42 | |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 28.1¢ | $17.23 | $51.87 | +$34.64 | 46% 37602-43917 (81519) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 74.9¢ | $167.16 | $123 | -$44.16 | 55% 6927-5685 (12612) |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Upavg 37.5¢ | $147.99 | $239.99 | +$91.99 | 54% 9974-8477 (18451) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80.3¢ | $58 | — | -$58 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.5¢ | $90 | $239.99 | +$149.99 | |
SP spartacray | Upavg 55.2¢ | $161.7 | $186.82 | +$25.12 | 53% 26646-23784 (50430) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 84.6¢ | $126 | $81.76 | -$44.24 | 66% 123592-63628 (187220) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $59.53 | $74.58 | +$15.04 | 59% 37129-26316 (63445) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41¢ | $30.58 | $74.58 | +$44 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.6¢ | $28.96 | — | -$28.96 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 92¢ | $144.4 | $100.04 | -$44.36 | 58% 59853-43696 (103549) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 75.1¢ | $48.35 | — | -$48.35 | 55% 16908-13568 (30476) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $21.42 | — | -$21.42 | 55% 23425-18977 (42402) |
AS asidjasiodja | Upavg 98¢ | $117.21 | $69 | -$41.99 | 61% 93036-58467 (151503) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $13.89 | — | -$13.89 | 57% 11553-8571 (20124) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $12.6 | $30 | +$17.4 | 66% 98240-50705 (148945) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $15 | — | -$15 | 66% 111007-57237 (168244) |
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970.89
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.01
Record
74%
101844-36246 (138090)
Invested
$860.74
Value
—
PnL
-$860.74
Record
54%
14979-12584 (27563)
Invested
$418.32
Value
—
PnL
-$418.32
Record
56%
13780-10787 (24567)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$328.87
Value
—
PnL
-$328.87
Record
64%
57137-31956 (89093)
Invested
$744.91
Value
$737.95
PnL
-$6.96
Record
56%
7259-5596 (12855)
Invested
$340.93
Value
—
PnL
-$340.93
Record
56%
13262-10620 (23882)
Invested
$208.45
Value
—
PnL
-$208.45
Record
57%
9927-7438 (17365)
Invested
$213.92
Value
—
PnL
-$213.92
Record
49%
4783-4930 (9713)
Invested
$266.01
Value
$245.6
PnL
-$20.42
Record
60%
11724-7667 (19391)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$149.58
Value
$157
PnL
+$7.42
Record
55%
43434-35853 (79287)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$198.15
Value
$281.5
PnL
+$83.35
Record
56%
12007-9267 (21274)
Both legs:
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$193.28
Value
$417.7
PnL
+$224.42
Record
55%
8181-6633 (14814)
Both legs:
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$17.23
Value
$51.87
PnL
+$34.64
Record
46%
37602-43917 (81519)
Invested
$167.16
Value
$123
PnL
-$44.16
Record
55%
6927-5685 (12612)
Invested
$147.99
Value
$239.99
PnL
+$91.99
Record
54%
9974-8477 (18451)
Both legs:
Invested
$161.7
Value
$186.82
PnL
+$25.12
Record
53%
26646-23784 (50430)
Invested
$126
Value
$81.76
PnL
-$44.24
Record
66%
123592-63628 (187220)
Invested
$59.53
Value
$74.58
PnL
+$15.04
Record
59%
37129-26316 (63445)
Both legs:
Invested
$144.4
Value
$100.04
PnL
-$44.36
Record
58%
59853-43696 (103549)
Invested
$48.35
Value
—
PnL
-$48.35
Record
55%
16908-13568 (30476)
Invested
$21.42
Value
—
PnL
-$21.42
Record
55%
23425-18977 (42402)
Invested
$117.21
Value
$69
PnL
-$41.99
Record
61%
93036-58467 (151503)
Invested
$13.89
Value
—
PnL
-$13.89
Record
57%
11553-8571 (20124)
Invested
$12.6
Value
$30
PnL
+$17.4
Record
66%
98240-50705 (148945)
Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$15
Record
66%
111007-57237 (168244)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Up — $3.0K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
wzbbb
Up — $737.95
GoodFallen
CTRDown — $0
trdyugiolkw
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $245.6
MayorMamdani
Up — $157