Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 87% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Up 87%
2 arb excluded
$12.2K
$108.53
Smart Money Signal
20 of 23 top traders (87%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barrister | Up | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$11.64 | 56% 3599-2786 (6385) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 59% 61732-42622 (104354) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 86.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$164.15 | 56% 7259-5596 (12855) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 97.3¢ | $873.33 | $811.43 | -$61.9 | 64% 57137-31956 (89093) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 87.6¢ | $441.66 | $380.4 | -$61.27 | 56% 13780-10787 (24567) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 64.6¢ | $405.1 | $405.99 | +$0.89 | 54% 14979-12584 (27563) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.6¢ | $262.27 | $405.99 | +$143.72 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.4¢ | $142.83 | — | -$142.83 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 56.7¢ | $150.57 | $198.32 | +$47.75 | 56% 13262-10620 (23882) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.7¢ | $112.52 | $198.32 | +$85.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41¢ | $38.05 | — | -$38.05 | |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 96.7¢ | $136.62 | $141.35 | +$4.73 | 55% 43434-35853 (79287) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 74.7¢ | $104.09 | $137 | +$32.91 | 55% 6927-5685 (12612) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 96.9¢ | $117.09 | $120 | +$2.91 | 54% 9974-8477 (18451) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.9¢ | $90.55 | — | -$90.55 | 57% 11553-8571 (20124) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Upavg 92.3¢ | $78.48 | $80 | +$1.52 | 53% 26646-23784 (50430) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $63.47 | $96 | +$32.53 | 59% 37129-26316 (63445) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 96.5¢ | $81.19 | $60 | -$21.19 | 49% 4783-4930 (9713) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 2.5¢ | $15 | — | -$15 | 55% 8181-6633 (14814) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 85.5¢ | $32 | $37.41 | +$5.41 | 65% 20341-11101 (31442) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 95.7¢ | $37.63 | $36.84 | -$0.79 | 61% 93036-58467 (151503) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 51.9¢ | $31.2 | $60.15 | +$28.95 | 65% 123341-65952 (189293) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $32.58 | $31 | -$1.58 | 52% 88667-83095 (171762) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $29.59 | $59 | +$29.41 | 66% 98240-50705 (148945) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $24.93 | $49.67 | +$24.75 | 56% 12007-9267 (21274) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $25.2 | $40 | +$14.8 | 57% 9927-7438 (17365) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 83.6¢ | $28.14 | $33.65 | +$5.51 | 66% 123592-63628 (187220) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $5.1 | $5 | -$0.1 | 55% 16908-13568 (30476) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $1.32 | — | -$1.32 | 60% 11724-7667 (19391) |
Invested
$4,990
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$11.64
Record
56%
3599-2786 (6385)
Invested
$3,011.63
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
59%
61732-42622 (104354)
Invested
$1,217.55
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$164.15
Record
56%
7259-5596 (12855)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$873.33
Value
$811.43
PnL
-$61.9
Record
64%
57137-31956 (89093)
Invested
$441.66
Value
$380.4
PnL
-$61.27
Record
56%
13780-10787 (24567)
Invested
$405.1
Value
$405.99
PnL
+$0.89
Record
54%
14979-12584 (27563)
Both legs:
Invested
$150.57
Value
$198.32
PnL
+$47.75
Record
56%
13262-10620 (23882)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniInvested
$136.62
Value
$141.35
PnL
+$4.73
Record
55%
43434-35853 (79287)
Invested
$104.09
Value
$137
PnL
+$32.91
Record
55%
6927-5685 (12612)
Invested
$117.09
Value
$120
PnL
+$2.91
Record
54%
9974-8477 (18451)
Invested
$90.55
Value
—
PnL
-$90.55
Record
57%
11553-8571 (20124)
Invested
$78.48
Value
$80
PnL
+$1.52
Record
53%
26646-23784 (50430)
Invested
$63.47
Value
$96
PnL
+$32.53
Record
59%
37129-26316 (63445)
Invested
$81.19
Value
$60
PnL
-$21.19
Record
49%
4783-4930 (9713)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$15
Record
55%
8181-6633 (14814)
Invested
$32
Value
$37.41
PnL
+$5.41
Record
65%
20341-11101 (31442)
Invested
$37.63
Value
$36.84
PnL
-$0.79
Record
61%
93036-58467 (151503)
Invested
$31.2
Value
$60.15
PnL
+$28.95
Record
65%
123341-65952 (189293)
Invested
$32.58
Value
$31
PnL
-$1.58
Record
52%
88667-83095 (171762)
Invested
$29.59
Value
$59
PnL
+$29.41
Record
66%
98240-50705 (148945)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$24.93
Value
$49.67
PnL
+$24.75
Record
56%
12007-9267 (21274)
Invested
$25.2
Value
$40
PnL
+$14.8
Record
57%
9927-7438 (17365)
Invested
$28.14
Value
$33.65
PnL
+$5.51
Record
66%
123592-63628 (187220)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.1
Record
55%
16908-13568 (30476)
Invested
$1.32
Value
—
PnL
-$1.32
Record
60%
11724-7667 (19391)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
0x50f7
Up — $3.0K
wzbbb
Up — $1.4K
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $811.43
CrouchPredictions
Up — $380.4
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
Up — $141.35
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $137
thesidehustle
Up — $120