Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 93% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 93%
5 arb excluded
$9.5K
$1.4K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 14 top traders (93%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barristerARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $4.7K | $4.5K | -$170.69 | 56% 3597-2785 (6382) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $2.3K | $4.5K | +$2.3K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $2.4K | — | $-2.4K | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 61.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.8K | +$194.51 | 64% 57093-31900 (88993) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.8K | +$716.56 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35¢ | $521.99 | — | -$522.05 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 57.9¢ | $887.1 | $979.72 | +$1.1K | 54% 14979-12584 (27563) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 52.2¢ | $326.69 | $434.82 | +$108.13 | 56% 13248-10617 (23865) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 54.6¢ | $294.9 | $445.63 | +$150.72 | 57% 68565-52168 (120733) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 70.4¢ | $413.02 | $379.86 | -$33.16 | 56% 13779-10787 (24566) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.4¢ | $267.46 | $379.86 | +$112.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.3¢ | $145.55 | — | -$145.56 | |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 60.1¢ | $265.33 | $275.67 | +$10.33 | 49% 4775-4921 (9696) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.1¢ | $165.65 | $275.67 | +$110.01 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.1¢ | $99.66 | — | -$99.67 | |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 62.5¢ | $135.81 | $121.58 | -$14.23 | 56% 11999-9259 (21258) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.5¢ | $75.94 | $121.58 | +$45.64 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.7¢ | $59.86 | — | -$59.87 | |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 34.4¢ | $145.03 | — | -$145.03 | 56% 7242-5592 (12834) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 75.9¢ | $79.04 | $104.12 | +$25.08 | 58% 59847-43689 (103536) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $38.7 | $64.5 | +$25.8 | 62% 43427-26319 (69746) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 71.6¢ | $59.91 | $78.6 | +$97.3 | 55% 49742-40383 (90125) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $36.58 | $62 | +$25.42 | 55% 47671-39283 (86954) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $36.57 | $61.98 | +$25.41 | 56% 48945-39199 (88144) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 79.5¢ | $48 | $60.39 | +$12.39 | 65% 123277-65941 (189218) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 64.1¢ | $26.3 | $28.84 | +$2.54 | 52% 88635-83063 (171698) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 67.2¢ | $21.11 | $28.91 | +$7.8 | 61% 93033-58466 (151499) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 66.7¢ | $15 | $22.5 | +$7.5 | 66% 123499-63579 (187078) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $5 | +$2.8 | 56% 57244-44253 (101497) |
Invested
$4,687.02
Value
$4.5K
PnL
-$170.69
Record
56%
3597-2785 (6382)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$1,648.57
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$194.51
Record
64%
57093-31900 (88993)
Both legs:
Invested
$887.1
Value
$979.72
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
54%
14979-12584 (27563)
Invested
$326.69
Value
$434.82
PnL
+$108.13
Record
56%
13248-10617 (23865)
Invested
$294.9
Value
$445.63
PnL
+$150.72
Record
57%
68565-52168 (120733)
Invested
$413.02
Value
$379.86
PnL
-$33.16
Record
56%
13779-10787 (24566)
Both legs:
Invested
$265.33
Value
$275.67
PnL
+$10.33
Record
49%
4775-4921 (9696)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$135.81
Value
$121.58
PnL
-$14.23
Record
56%
11999-9259 (21258)
Both legs:
Invested
$145.03
Value
—
PnL
-$145.03
Record
56%
7242-5592 (12834)
Invested
$79.04
Value
$104.12
PnL
+$25.08
Record
58%
59847-43689 (103536)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$38.7
Value
$64.5
PnL
+$25.8
Record
62%
43427-26319 (69746)
Invested
$59.91
Value
$78.6
PnL
+$97.3
Record
55%
49742-40383 (90125)
Invested
$36.58
Value
$62
PnL
+$25.42
Record
55%
47671-39283 (86954)
Invested
$36.57
Value
$61.98
PnL
+$25.41
Record
56%
48945-39199 (88144)
Invested
$48
Value
$60.39
PnL
+$12.39
Record
65%
123277-65941 (189218)
Invested
$26.3
Value
$28.84
PnL
+$2.54
Record
52%
88635-83063 (171698)
Invested
$21.11
Value
$28.91
PnL
+$7.8
Record
61%
93033-58466 (151499)
Invested
$15
Value
$22.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
66%
123499-63579 (187078)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.8
Record
56%
57244-44253 (101497)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $979.72
GoodFallen
Down — $434.82
uninformedfloww
Down — $445.63
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $104.12