Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
30
Down 56%
$1.1K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 30 top traders (67%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 27.4¢ | $635.09 | — | -$635.09 | 55% 8173-6625 (14798) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 55.4¢ | $436.57 | $597.67 | +$163.11 | 60% 11715-7661 (19376) |
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700 | Upavg 40.7¢ | $126.6 | $311 | +$184.4 | 63% 1741-1006 (2747) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Downavg 57.3¢ | $419.59 | — | -$444.15 | 55% 6916-5680 (12596) |
SI sir-upalotCTR | Downavg 58.7¢ | $179.32 | — | -$179.32 | 55% 23415-18973 (42388) |
 wowitsamazing | Upavg 42¢ | $49.2 | $117.27 | +$68.07 | 58% 12406-9050 (21456) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 48.4¢ | $38.75 | $60 | +$37.45 | 65% 20299-11074 (31373) |
GA gansinimenCTR | Downavg 42¢ | $231.23 | — | -$231.23 | 51% 16847-16459 (33306) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 57.6¢ | $70.74 | — | -$70.74 | 56% 16881-13534 (30415) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Downavg 44.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 13248-10617 (23865) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3597-2785 (6382) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Upavg 53.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 66% 98231-50697 (148928) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 11999-9259 (21258) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | — | — | +$0 | 59% 37117-26296 (63413) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 61.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 64% 57093-31900 (88993) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Downavg 52.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 65% 3750-2020 (5770) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 29.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 7242-5592 (12834) |
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100 | Downavg 43.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 4775-4921 (9696) |
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324<$100 | Upavg 46.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 861-834 (1695) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | — | — | +$0 | 65% 123277-65941 (189218) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 66% 110995-57210 (168205) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | — | — | +$0 | 64% 39486-22518 (62004) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 27.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 37587-43901 (81488) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 59847-43689 (103536) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 65.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 43408-35825 (79233) |
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$635.09
Value
—
PnL
-$635.09
Record
55%
8173-6625 (14798)
Invested
$436.57
Value
$597.67
PnL
+$163.11
Record
60%
11715-7661 (19376)
Invested
$126.6
Value
$311
PnL
+$184.4
Record
63%
1741-1006 (2747)
Invested
$419.59
Value
—
PnL
-$444.15
Record
55%
6916-5680 (12596)
Invested
$179.32
Value
—
PnL
-$179.32
Record
55%
23415-18973 (42388)
wowitsamazingInvested
$49.2
Value
$117.27
PnL
+$68.07
Record
58%
12406-9050 (21456)
Invested
$38.75
Value
$60
PnL
+$37.45
Record
65%
20299-11074 (31373)
Invested
$231.23
Value
—
PnL
-$231.23
Record
51%
16847-16459 (33306)
Invested
$70.74
Value
—
PnL
-$70.74
Record
56%
16881-13534 (30415)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
13248-10617 (23865)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3597-2785 (6382)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
98231-50697 (148928)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
11999-9259 (21258)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
37117-26296 (63413)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
57093-31900 (88993)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
3750-2020 (5770)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
7242-5592 (12834)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
4775-4921 (9696)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
861-834 (1695)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
123277-65941 (189218)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
110995-57210 (168205)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
39486-22518 (62004)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
37587-43901 (81488)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
59847-43689 (103536)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
43408-35825 (79233)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
machinelearned
CTRDown — $0
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $597.67
0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700
Up — $311
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
CTRDown — $0
sir-upalot
CTRDown — $0
wowitsamazing
Up — $117.27
aaa221
Up — $60
gansinimen
CTRDown — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRDown — $0
GoodFallen
CTRDown — $0