Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 20 top traders (65%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares3,977

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,064

Combined PnL-$978.19

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pkmgoh92	Downavg 20.7¢	$400	$1.9K	+$1.5K	45% 506-611 (1117)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 53.7¢	$868.78	$649.55	-$219.23	56% 7230-5580 (12810)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.1¢	$416.59	$649.55	+$232.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.7¢	$452.19	—	-$452.19
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 56.4¢	$726.02	—	-$726.02	56% 13238-10612 (23850)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 54.1¢	$550.35	$564.78	+$14.43	55% 6910-5671 (12581)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 41.5¢	$333.75	$340.38	+$6.64	49% 4765-4917 (9682)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40¢	$136.04	$340.38	+$204.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.5¢	$197.71	—	-$197.71
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 36.7¢	$272.15	$233.13	-$39.02	64% 56876-31752 (88628)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.2¢	$91.3	$233.13	+$141.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.7¢	$180.85	—	-$180.85
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 53.3¢	$222.82	$252.97	+$30.15	57% 11531-8558 (20089)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 47.3¢	$211.26	$446.27	+$235.01	58% 50428-36579 (87007)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$211	$182.7	-$28.3	56% 11992-9251 (21243)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$92.3	$182.7	+$90.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$118.7	—	-$118.7
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 64.5¢	$126.28	$175.69	+$49.42	55% 23406-18967 (42373)
machinelearned	Downavg 73.9¢	$125.02	$142.07	+$17.05	55% 8167-6617 (14784)
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Downavg 42.4¢	$83.94	$107.92	+$23.99	52% 88160-82530 (170690)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.4¢	$45.81	$107.92	+$62.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.9¢	$38.13	—	-$38.13
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 28.3¢	$54.13	$139.05	+$84.92	55% 16679-13386 (30065)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$199.99	$100	-$99.99	51% 16825-16453 (33278)
└ Down leg	Downavg 99¢	$99	$100	+$1
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$100.99	—	-$100.99
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 69.1¢	$195.97	—	-$195.97	48% 22491-24293 (46784)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 36.5¢	$147.28	$69.59	-$77.69	57% 9913-7414 (17327)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.7¢	$48.48	$69.59	+$21.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.5¢	$98.8	—	-$98.8
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$149.89	$91.51	-$58.38	60% 11706-7655 (19361)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.1¢	$54.98	$91.51	+$36.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.8¢	$94.91	—	-$94.91
Atomforge	Downavg 91.2¢	$118.24	$112.03	-$6.21	65% 3741-2018 (5759)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 29.1¢	$30.6	$86.66	+$56.06	56% 57212-44229 (101441)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 59¢	$84.13	$63.05	+$15.32	65% 122236-65268 (187504)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$37.2	$63.05	+$25.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.3¢	$32.19	—	-$10.53
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 66.8¢	$36.69	$38.56	+$1.87	66% 110612-56847 (167459)
TH thismonthCTR<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$20	—	-$20	34% 576-1123 (1699)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 39.1¢	$15.65	$40	+$24.35	58% 12400-9044 (21444)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 39¢	$18.33	$47.01	+$28.68	59% 37055-26228 (63283)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 76¢	$18.24	—	-$18.24	55% 43094-35539 (78633)

pkmgoh92

Down

Invested

$400

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

45%

506-611 (1117)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$868.78

Value

$649.55

PnL

-$219.23

Record

56%

7230-5580 (12810)

Both legs:

Down$416.5964.1¢+$232.97

Up$452.1953.7¢-$452.19

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$726.02

Value

—

PnL

-$726.02

Record

56%

13238-10612 (23850)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$550.35

Value

$564.78

PnL

+$14.43

Record

55%

6910-5671 (12581)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$333.75

Value

$340.38

PnL

+$6.64

Record

49%

4765-4917 (9682)

Both legs:

Down$136.0440¢+$204.35

Up$197.7141.5¢-$197.71

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$272.15

Value

$233.13

PnL

-$39.02

Record

64%

56876-31752 (88628)

Both legs:

Down$91.339.2¢+$141.83

Up$180.8536.7¢-$180.85

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$222.82

Value

$252.97

PnL

+$30.15

Record

57%

11531-8558 (20089)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$211.26

Value

$446.27

PnL

+$235.01

Record

58%

50428-36579 (87007)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$211

Value

$182.7

PnL

-$28.3

Record

56%

11992-9251 (21243)

Both legs:

Invested

$126.28

Value

$175.69

PnL

+$49.42

Record

55%

23406-18967 (42373)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$125.02

Value

$142.07

PnL

+$17.05

Record

55%

8167-6617 (14784)

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Down

Invested

$83.94

Value

$107.92

PnL

+$23.99

Record

52%

88160-82530 (170690)

Both legs:

Down$45.8142.4¢+$62.11

Up$38.1315.9¢-$38.13

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$54.13

Value

$139.05

PnL

+$84.92

Record

55%

16679-13386 (30065)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$199.99

Value

$100

PnL

-$99.99

Record

51%

16825-16453 (33278)

Both legs:

Down$9999¢+$1

Up$100.9950.5¢-$100.99

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$195.97

Value

—

PnL

-$195.97

Record

48%

22491-24293 (46784)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$147.28

Value

$69.59

PnL

-$77.69

Record

57%

9913-7414 (17327)

Both legs:

Down$48.4869.7¢+$21.11

Up$98.836.5¢-$98.8

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$149.89

Value

$91.51

PnL

-$58.38

Record

60%

11706-7655 (19361)

Both legs:

Down$54.9860.1¢+$36.53

Up$94.9158.8¢-$94.91

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$118.24

Value

$112.03

PnL

-$6.21

Record

65%

3741-2018 (5759)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$30.6

Value

$86.66

PnL

+$56.06

Record

56%

57212-44229 (101441)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$84.13

Value

$63.05

PnL

+$15.32

Record

65%

122236-65268 (187504)

Both legs:

Invested

$36.69

Value

$38.56

PnL

+$1.87

Record

66%

110612-56847 (167459)

thismonthCTR<$100

Invested

$20

Value

—

PnL

-$20

Record

34%

576-1123 (1699)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$15.65

Value

$40

PnL

+$24.35

Record

58%

12400-9044 (21444)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$18.33

Value

$47.01

PnL

+$28.68

Record

59%

37055-26228 (63283)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$18.24

Value

—

PnL

-$18.24

Record

55%

43094-35539 (78633)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 20 top traders (65%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x28d8c3ec...fd6b81

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793064600

Traders in this Market

pkmgoh92

Down — $1.9K

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Up — $0

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $564.78

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Down — $252.97

+$30.15

PBot-6

Down — $446.27

+$235.01

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$28.3

sir-upalot

Down — $175.69

+$49.42

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