Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 84%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Signal

18 of 21 top traders (86%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares7,780

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares170

Combined PnL-$92.49

Up — 86%Down — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$20.92	74% 101033-36153 (137186)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$25.5	93% 21935-1697 (23632)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 67.2¢	$816.92	$861.83	+$44.91	56% 7230-5580 (12810)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 46.5¢	$608.63	$1.3K	+$701.65	59% 37055-26228 (63283)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 87.2¢	$847.9	$410.73	+$45.46	64% 56876-31752 (88628)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 57.1¢	$339.05	$391.86	+$52.82	56% 13238-10612 (23850)
pspspsps5	Upavg 89.8¢	$342.24	$381.04	+$38.8	46% 37426-43665 (81091)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 98¢	$87.61	$50	-$37.61	55% 8167-6617 (14784)
└ Down leg	Downavg 6.7¢	$38.61	—	-$38.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 98¢	$49	$50	+$1
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 42.4¢	$92	$209.99	+$118	57% 11531-8558 (20089)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 57.3¢	$151.01	$142.29	-$8.72	49% 4765-4917 (9682)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$81.49	$142.29	+$60.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.3¢	$69.52	—	-$69.52
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 84.6¢	$173.57	$175.38	+$1.82	57% 9913-7414 (17327)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 61.6¢	$124.13	$144.29	+$20.16	56% 11992-9251 (21243)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 72¢	$122.01	$166.61	+$44.6	55% 6910-5671 (12581)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 77.1¢	$124.32	$119.1	-$5.22	55% 16679-13386 (30065)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 24.5¢	$85.01	$64.95	-$20.05	60% 11706-7655 (19361)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.5¢	$41.89	$64.95	+$23.06
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.5¢	$43.12	—	-$43.12
PB PBot-6	Upavg 50¢	$86.46	$172.92	+$86.46	58% 50428-36579 (87007)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$52.27	—	-$52.27	12% 17777-131942 (149719)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$66.6	$59	-$7.6	52% 88160-82530 (170690)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 28¢	$44.85	$35.11	-$9.74	56% 57212-44229 (101441)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.7¢	$16.75	$35.11	+$18.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 28¢	$28.1	—	-$28.1
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 59.2¢	$25.22	—	-$25.22	65% 20263-11052 (31315)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 56¢	$15	—	-$15	66% 110612-56847 (167459)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 33¢	$1.65	$4.99	+$3.34	58% 59704-43557 (103261)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 51¢	$2.45	$4.81	+$2.36	51% 19457-18674 (38131)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Upavg 98¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	48% 22491-24293 (46784)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3587-2782 (6369)

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,071.3

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$20.92

Record

74%

101033-36153 (137186)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,249.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$25.5

Record

93%

21935-1697 (23632)

wzbbb

Invested

$816.92

Value

$861.83

PnL

+$44.91

Record

56%

7230-5580 (12810)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$608.63

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$701.65

Record

59%

37055-26228 (63283)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$847.9

Value

$410.73

PnL

+$45.46

Record

64%

56876-31752 (88628)

GoodFallen

Invested

$339.05

Value

$391.86

PnL

+$52.82

Record

56%

13238-10612 (23850)

pspspsps5

Invested

$342.24

Value

$381.04

PnL

+$38.8

Record

46%

37426-43665 (81091)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$87.61

Value

$50

PnL

-$37.61

Record

55%

8167-6617 (14784)

Both legs:

Down$38.616.7¢-$38.61

Up$4998¢+$1

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$92

Value

$209.99

PnL

+$118

Record

57%

11531-8558 (20089)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$151.01

Value

$142.29

PnL

-$8.72

Record

49%

4765-4917 (9682)

Both legs:

Up$81.4957.3¢+$60.8

Down$69.5240.3¢-$69.52

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$173.57

Value

$175.38

PnL

+$1.82

Record

57%

9913-7414 (17327)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$124.13

Value

$144.29

PnL

+$20.16

Record

56%

11992-9251 (21243)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$122.01

Value

$166.61

PnL

+$44.6

Record

55%

6910-5671 (12581)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$124.32

Value

$119.1

PnL

-$5.22

Record

55%

16679-13386 (30065)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$85.01

Value

$64.95

PnL

-$20.05

Record

60%

11706-7655 (19361)

Both legs:

Up$41.8964.5¢+$23.06

Down$43.1224.5¢-$43.12

PBot-6

Invested

$86.46

Value

$172.92

PnL

+$86.46

Record

58%

50428-36579 (87007)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$52.27

Value

—

PnL

-$52.27

Record

12%

17777-131942 (149719)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$66.6

Value

$59

PnL

-$7.6

Record

52%

88160-82530 (170690)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$44.85

Value

$35.11

PnL

-$9.74

Record

56%

57212-44229 (101441)

Both legs:

Invested

$25.22

Value

—

PnL

-$25.22

Record

65%

20263-11052 (31315)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

66%

110612-56847 (167459)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$1.65

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$3.34

Record

58%

59704-43557 (103261)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$4.81

PnL

+$2.36

Record

51%

19457-18674 (38131)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

22491-24293 (46784)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3587-2782 (6369)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 21 top traders (86%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe157aa6d...7238a4

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793064300

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Up — $2.1K

+$20.92

hoodquant

Up — $1.3K

+$25.5

wzbbb

Up — $861.83

+$44.91

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.3K

+$701.65

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $410.73

+$45.46

GoodFallen

Up — $391.86

+$52.82

pspspsps5

Up — $381.04

+$38.8

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$37.61

EZTRADENL2

Up — $209.99

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded