Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Down 82%
3 arb excluded
$13.7K
$465.5
Smart Money Signal
18 of 24 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35.01 | 74% 101033-36153 (137186) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 85% 57548-10544 (68092) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$21.31 | 93% 21935-1697 (23632) |
OX oxe78sh4w98 | Downavg 85.2¢ | $976.72 | $1.1K | +$162.2 | 53% 289-256 (545) |
BO borderlocket | Downavg 84.1¢ | $972.42 | $1.2K | +$183.45 | — |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 94.1¢ | $818.74 | $869.92 | +$51.19 | 56% 7230-5580 (12810) |
BI bisonarcticCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $25 | — | -$25 | 48% 20-22 (42) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 93.6¢ | $587.04 | $399.81 | -$37.38 | 64% 56876-31752 (88628) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 92.4¢ | $486.93 | $485.16 | -$1.77 | 55% 8167-6617 (14784) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 92.4¢ | $448.53 | $485.16 | +$36.63 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 15.6¢ | $38.4 | — | -$38.4 | |
 Atomforge | Downavg 84.6¢ | $229.81 | $253.31 | +$23.5 | 65% 3741-2018 (5759) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 97.4¢ | $249.44 | $256.14 | +$6.7 | 46% 37426-43665 (81091) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Downavg 86.9¢ | $202.62 | $228.77 | +$26.15 | 53% 1945-1759 (3704) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Downavg 97¢ | $290.99 | $299.99 | +$9 | 48% 22491-24293 (46784) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 97.6¢ | $137.57 | $141 | +$3.43 | 55% 43094-35539 (78633) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 70.3¢ | $128.3 | $130.45 | +$2.14 | 56% 13238-10612 (23850) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.3¢ | $91.76 | $130.45 | +$38.69 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32¢ | $36.54 | — | -$36.54 | |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 87.6¢ | $109.6 | $100.73 | -$8.87 | 49% 4765-4917 (9682) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 87.6¢ | $88.28 | $100.73 | +$12.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22.4¢ | $21.32 | — | -$21.32 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 80¢ | $84.18 | $105.29 | +$21.11 | 56% 57212-44229 (101441) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Upavg 16.3¢ | $14.7 | — | -$14.7 | 57% 11531-8558 (20089) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 85.7¢ | $77.85 | $90.88 | +$13.03 | 55% 6910-5671 (12581) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 94.6¢ | $23.53 | $24.88 | +$1.35 | 55% 16679-13386 (30065) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $27.83 | $28 | +$0.17 | 52% 88160-82530 (170690) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 47.8¢ | $11.15 | — | -$11.15 | 59% 37055-26228 (63283) |
RO royalanchor02CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | 53% 45-40 (85) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $10.1 | $15 | +$4.9 | 56% 11992-9251 (21243) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $5 | +$0.25 | 65% 122236-65268 (187504) |
BoneOhioInvested
$3,465.89
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35.01
Record
74%
101033-36153 (137186)
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
85%
57548-10544 (68092)
Invested
$1,447.69
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$21.31
Record
93%
21935-1697 (23632)
Invested
$976.72
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$162.2
Record
53%
289-256 (545)
Invested
$972.42
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$183.45
Record
—
Invested
$818.74
Value
$869.92
PnL
+$51.19
Record
56%
7230-5580 (12810)
Invested
$25
Value
—
PnL
-$25
Record
48%
20-22 (42)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$587.04
Value
$399.81
PnL
-$37.38
Record
64%
56876-31752 (88628)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$486.93
Value
$485.16
PnL
-$1.77
Record
55%
8167-6617 (14784)
Both legs:
AtomforgeInvested
$229.81
Value
$253.31
PnL
+$23.5
Record
65%
3741-2018 (5759)
pspspsps5Invested
$249.44
Value
$256.14
PnL
+$6.7
Record
46%
37426-43665 (81091)
Invested
$202.62
Value
$228.77
PnL
+$26.15
Record
53%
1945-1759 (3704)
Invested
$290.99
Value
$299.99
PnL
+$9
Record
48%
22491-24293 (46784)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$137.57
Value
$141
PnL
+$3.43
Record
55%
43094-35539 (78633)
Invested
$128.3
Value
$130.45
PnL
+$2.14
Record
56%
13238-10612 (23850)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.6
Value
$100.73
PnL
-$8.87
Record
49%
4765-4917 (9682)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.18
Value
$105.29
PnL
+$21.11
Record
56%
57212-44229 (101441)
Invested
$14.7
Value
—
PnL
-$14.7
Record
57%
11531-8558 (20089)
Invested
$77.85
Value
$90.88
PnL
+$13.03
Record
55%
6910-5671 (12581)
Invested
$23.53
Value
$24.88
PnL
+$1.35
Record
55%
16679-13386 (30065)
Invested
$27.83
Value
$28
PnL
+$0.17
Record
52%
88160-82530 (170690)
Invested
$11.15
Value
—
PnL
-$11.15
Record
59%
37055-26228 (63283)
Invested
$10
Value
—
PnL
-$10
Record
53%
45-40 (85)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$10.1
Value
$15
PnL
+$4.9
Record
56%
11992-9251 (21243)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.25
Record
65%
122236-65268 (187504)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $3.5K
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
oxe78sh4w98
Down — $1.1K
borderlocket
Down — $1.2K
wzbbb
Down — $869.92
bisonarctic
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $399.81
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Atomforge
Down — $253.31