Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Up 79%
2 arb excluded
$13.9K
$1.6K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 30 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7D 0x7d21...8e39 | Upavg 80.4¢ | $2.7K | $3.3K | +$649.93 | — |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 98.6¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$38.69 | 74% 100978-36150 (137128) |
OX oxe78sh4w98 | Upavg 81.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.7K | +$497.46 | 53% 282-252 (534) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 91.3¢ | $1.0K | $984 | -$20.96 | 56% 7214-5573 (12787) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 79.9¢ | $689.27 | $862.7 | +$173.43 | 65% 3729-2015 (5744) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 74.8¢ | $387.51 | $429.99 | +$42.49 | 56% 13228-10604 (23832) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 71.6¢ | $320.76 | $332.34 | +$11.57 | 55% 8158-6608 (14766) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71.6¢ | $237.8 | $332.34 | +$94.54 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.1¢ | $82.97 | — | -$82.97 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 76.1¢ | $261.41 | $342.07 | +$80.66 | 55% 16665-13373 (30038) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 76.8¢ | $269.3 | $255.82 | -$13.47 | 49% 4758-4907 (9665) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 76.9¢ | $224.65 | $246.36 | +$22.76 | 60% 11693-7650 (19343) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 77.4¢ | $210.35 | $204.37 | -$5.97 | 55% 6902-5661 (12563) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 72.8¢ | $165.73 | $211 | +$45.26 | 57% 11520-8551 (20071) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 76.2¢ | $179.58 | $184.49 | +$4.9 | 56% 11986-9239 (21225) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 90.1¢ | $177.58 | $196.99 | +$19.41 | 78% 9167-2653 (11820) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 72.8¢ | $144.41 | $162.73 | +$18.32 | 55% 43017-35460 (78477) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 75¢ | $114.6 | $140 | +$25.4 | 57% 9902-7404 (17306) |
 pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Upavg 79.7¢ | $75.91 | $48.3 | -$27.61 | 46% 37389-43600 (80989) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 16.1¢ | $37.43 | — | -$37.43 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79.7¢ | $38.48 | $48.3 | +$9.82 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $65.28 | $62.94 | -$2.34 | 58% 59659-43523 (103182) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Upavg 50¢ | $60 | $120 | +$60 | 12% 17737-130549 (148286) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $53.68 | — | -$53.68 | 59% 37019-26207 (63226) |
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700<$100 | Upavg 79.5¢ | $48.5 | $59 | +$12.3 | 63% 1731-1006 (2737) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $43.2 | $60.85 | +$17.65 | 65% 121395-64704 (186099) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 96.5¢ | $40.54 | $42 | +$1.46 | 93% 21903-1696 (23599) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a<$100 | Upavg 84.3¢ | $42.25 | $50.13 | +$7.88 | 52% 1939-1757 (3696) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $36 | $50 | +$14 | 55% 23399-18958 (42357) |
Invested
$2,666
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$649.93
Record
—
BoneOhioInvested
$2,806.64
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$38.69
Record
74%
100978-36150 (137128)
Invested
$2,196.74
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$497.46
Record
53%
282-252 (534)
Invested
$1,004.96
Value
$984
PnL
-$20.96
Record
56%
7214-5573 (12787)
AtomforgeInvested
$689.27
Value
$862.7
PnL
+$173.43
Record
65%
3729-2015 (5744)
Invested
$387.51
Value
$429.99
PnL
+$42.49
Record
56%
13228-10604 (23832)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$320.76
Value
$332.34
PnL
+$11.57
Record
55%
8158-6608 (14766)
Both legs:
Invested
$261.41
Value
$342.07
PnL
+$80.66
Record
55%
16665-13373 (30038)
Invested
$269.3
Value
$255.82
PnL
-$13.47
Record
49%
4758-4907 (9665)
Invested
$224.65
Value
$246.36
PnL
+$22.76
Record
60%
11693-7650 (19343)
Invested
$210.35
Value
$204.37
PnL
-$5.97
Record
55%
6902-5661 (12563)
Invested
$165.73
Value
$211
PnL
+$45.26
Record
57%
11520-8551 (20071)
FairValueMachineInvested
$179.58
Value
$184.49
PnL
+$4.9
Record
56%
11986-9239 (21225)
NIULAI4Invested
$177.58
Value
$196.99
PnL
+$19.41
Record
78%
9167-2653 (11820)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$144.41
Value
$162.73
PnL
+$18.32
Record
55%
43017-35460 (78477)
Invested
$114.6
Value
$140
PnL
+$25.4
Record
57%
9902-7404 (17306)
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$75.91
Value
$48.3
PnL
-$27.61
Record
46%
37389-43600 (80989)
Both legs:
Invested
$65.28
Value
$62.94
PnL
-$2.34
Record
58%
59659-43523 (103182)
Invested
$60
Value
$120
PnL
+$60
Record
12%
17737-130549 (148286)
Invested
$53.68
Value
—
PnL
-$53.68
Record
59%
37019-26207 (63226)
Invested
$48.5
Value
$59
PnL
+$12.3
Record
63%
1731-1006 (2737)
Invested
$43.2
Value
$60.85
PnL
+$17.65
Record
65%
121395-64704 (186099)
Invested
$40.54
Value
$42
PnL
+$1.46
Record
93%
21903-1696 (23599)
Invested
$42.25
Value
$50.13
PnL
+$7.88
Record
52%
1939-1757 (3696)
Invested
$36
Value
$50
PnL
+$14
Record
55%
23399-18958 (42357)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x7d21...8e39
Up — $3.3K
BoneOhio
Up — $2.8K
oxe78sh4w98
Up — $2.7K
wzbbb
Up — $984
Atomforge
Up — $862.7
GoodFallen
Up — $429.99
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $342.07
ply-pm0
Up — $255.82
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $246.36