Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 89% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 88%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$561.96

Smart Money Signal

17 of 19 top traders (89%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,842

Combined PnL+$603.41

Down2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$41.45

Up — 89%Down — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 62.8¢	$487.85	$546.51	+$58.66	56% 13228-10604 (23832)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.8¢	$343.35	$546.51	+$203.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.4¢	$144.5	—	-$144.5
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$352.34	$376.14	+$23.8	49% 4758-4907 (9665)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.4¢	$268.66	$376.14	+$107.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.5¢	$83.68	—	-$83.68
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 79.8¢	$407.9	$437.57	+$29.67	56% 7214-5573 (12787)
NIULAI4	Upavg 84.1¢	$397.4	$472.49	+$75.09	78% 9167-2653 (11820)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 76.1¢	$369.95	$360.86	-$9.09	57% 11520-8551 (20071)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 48.4¢	$250.41	$517.76	+$267.35	59% 37019-26207 (63226)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 47.8¢	$153.45	$227.31	+$73.87	55% 6902-5661 (12563)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$108.69	$227.31	+$118.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.2¢	$44.76	—	-$44.76
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 55¢	$152.64	$197.85	+$45.21	55% 8158-6608 (14766)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55¢	$108.89	$197.85	+$88.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.2¢	$43.76	—	-$43.76
MayorMamdani	Upavg 83¢	$195	$224	+$29	55% 43017-35460 (78477)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 80.9¢	$184.26	$227.77	+$43.52	56% 57185-44208 (101393)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 57.4¢	$146.25	$143.81	-$2.44	56% 11986-9239 (21225)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.4¢	$82.53	$143.81	+$61.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.1¢	$63.72	—	-$63.72
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 62.9¢	$91.19	$145	+$53.81	55% 23399-18958 (42357)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 73.2¢	$110.25	$108.25	-$0.95	60% 11693-7650 (19343)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 50.4¢	$84.72	$168	+$83.28	66% 97619-50176 (147795)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 76.4¢	$46	$60.25	+$14.25	65% 121395-64704 (186099)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100	Downavg 58¢	$39.45	—	-$39.45	59% 22594-15868 (38462)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 82¢	$45.49	$34.99	-$10.5	55% 16665-13373 (30038)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 56.3¢	$19.92	$35.2	+$15.28	66% 110218-56576 (166794)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 53.5¢	$15.85	$18.43	+$2.57	52% 88053-82440 (170493)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 67¢	$12.91	$19.27	+$6.36	62% 43387-26280 (69667)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 69¢	$8.41	$12.18	+$3.78	46% 37389-43600 (80989)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$2	—	-$2	65% 3729-2015 (5744)
DE devonpoll<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	51% 19436-18664 (38100)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3587-2782 (6369)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$487.85

Value

$546.51

PnL

+$58.66

Record

56%

13228-10604 (23832)

Both legs:

Up$343.3562.8¢+$203.16

Down$144.537.4¢-$144.5

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$352.34

Value

$376.14

PnL

+$23.8

Record

49%

4758-4907 (9665)

Both legs:

Up$268.6671.4¢+$107.48

Down$83.6827.5¢-$83.68

wzbbb

Invested

$407.9

Value

$437.57

PnL

+$29.67

Record

56%

7214-5573 (12787)

NIULAI4

Invested

$397.4

Value

$472.49

PnL

+$75.09

Record

78%

9167-2653 (11820)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$369.95

Value

$360.86

PnL

-$9.09

Record

57%

11520-8551 (20071)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$250.41

Value

$517.76

PnL

+$267.35

Record

59%

37019-26207 (63226)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$153.45

Value

$227.31

PnL

+$73.87

Record

55%

6902-5661 (12563)

Both legs:

Up$108.6947.8¢+$118.62

Down$44.7616.2¢-$44.76

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$152.64

Value

$197.85

PnL

+$45.21

Record

55%

8158-6608 (14766)

Both legs:

Up$108.8955¢+$88.97

Down$43.7631.2¢-$43.76

MayorMamdani

Invested

$195

Value

$224

PnL

+$29

Record

55%

43017-35460 (78477)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$184.26

Value

$227.77

PnL

+$43.52

Record

56%

57185-44208 (101393)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$146.25

Value

$143.81

PnL

-$2.44

Record

56%

11986-9239 (21225)

Both legs:

Up$82.5357.4¢+$61.27

Down$63.7239.1¢-$63.72

sir-upalot

Invested

$91.19

Value

$145

PnL

+$53.81

Record

55%

23399-18958 (42357)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$110.25

Value

$108.25

PnL

-$0.95

Record

60%

11693-7650 (19343)

Bonereaper

Invested

$84.72

Value

$168

PnL

+$83.28

Record

66%

97619-50176 (147795)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$46

Value

$60.25

PnL

+$14.25

Record

65%

121395-64704 (186099)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39.45

Value

—

PnL

-$39.45

Record

59%

22594-15868 (38462)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$45.49

Value

$34.99

PnL

-$10.5

Record

55%

16665-13373 (30038)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$19.92

Value

$35.2

PnL

+$15.28

Record

66%

110218-56576 (166794)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$15.85

Value

$18.43

PnL

+$2.57

Record

52%

88053-82440 (170493)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$12.91

Value

$19.27

PnL

+$6.36

Record

62%

43387-26280 (69667)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$8.41

Value

$12.18

PnL

+$3.78

Record

46%

37389-43600 (80989)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$2

Record

65%

3729-2015 (5744)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19436-18664 (38100)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3587-2782 (6369)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 19 top traders (89%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1425ca8e...b85ab9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793060400

Traders in this Market

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Up — $437.57

+$29.67

NIULAI4

Up — $472.49

+$75.09

EZTRADENL2

Up — $360.86

-$9.09

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $517.76

+$267.35

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

MayorMamdani

Up — $224

+$29

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $227.77

+$43.52

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