Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$11.97

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 22 top traders (59%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,318

Combined PnL+$269.97

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,040

Combined PnL-$281.94

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$909.1	$918.28	+$9.18	74% 100978-36150 (137128)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 76.2¢	$702.45	$626.99	-$75.46	56% 7214-5573 (12787)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.2¢	$477.97	$626.99	+$149.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.2¢	$224.48	—	-$224.48
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 63.5¢	$380.99	$599.98	+$218.99	48% 22486-24281 (46767)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 36.3¢	$405.28	$339.86	-$65.42	56% 13228-10604 (23832)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$197.16	$339.86	+$142.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.3¢	$208.12	—	-$208.12
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$405.33	$361.22	-$44.11	55% 6902-5661 (12563)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.1¢	$260.27	$361.22	+$100.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.4¢	$145.06	—	-$145.06
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$295.79	$293.91	-$1.88	49% 4758-4907 (9665)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.1¢	$185.49	$293.91	+$108.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.7¢	$110.3	—	-$110.3
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 78.5¢	$333.98	$249.58	-$84.4	57% 11520-8551 (20071)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.5¢	$195.93	$249.58	+$53.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$138.05	—	-$138.05
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 69.8¢	$244.66	$179.22	-$65.45	56% 11986-9239 (21225)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.8¢	$125.13	$179.22	+$54.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.6¢	$119.54	—	-$119.54
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$114.55	$105	-$9.55	55% 8158-6608 (14766)
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.2¢	$51.3	—	-$51.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.2¢	$63.25	$105	+$41.75
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$143.55	$145	+$1.45	93% 21903-1696 (23599)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$51.12	—	-$51.12	66% 97619-50176 (147795)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 81.7¢	$124.87	$129.27	+$4.4	55% 43017-35460 (78477)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR	Upavg 30.7¢	$110.63	—	-$110.63	55% 16665-13373 (30038)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 67.1¢	$89.34	$93.48	+$4.14	60% 11693-7650 (19343)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.1¢	$62.77	$93.48	+$30.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.7¢	$26.57	—	-$26.57
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 85¢	$108.88	$100.47	-$8.41	55% 23399-18958 (42357)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 87.5¢	$88.13	$100.74	+$12.61	56% 57185-44208 (101393)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 52¢	$64.71	$65.9	+$1.19	66% 110218-56576 (166794)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$34.29	$65.9	+$31.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.1¢	$30.42	—	-$30.42
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 32¢	$42.24	—	-$42.24	12% 17737-130549 (148286)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 91¢	$75.66	$77.84	+$2.18	52% 88053-82440 (170493)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 91¢	$85.8	$60.66	-$25.14	57% 9902-7404 (17306)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 48.6¢	$32.04	$65.98	+$33.94	59% 37019-26207 (63226)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 14.6¢	$27.54	—	-$27.54	46% 37389-43600 (80989)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$40.16	—	-$40.16	58% 59659-43523 (103182)
GA gansinimen<$100	Downavg 81¢	$29.65	$36.6	+$6.95	51% 16819-16451 (33270)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 83.8¢	$51.6	$61.56	+$9.96	65% 121395-64704 (186099)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$909.1

Value

$918.28

PnL

+$9.18

Record

74%

100978-36150 (137128)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$702.45

Value

$626.99

PnL

-$75.46

Record

56%

7214-5573 (12787)

Both legs:

Down$477.9776.2¢+$149.01

Up$224.4824.2¢-$224.48

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$380.99

Value

$599.98

PnL

+$218.99

Record

48%

22486-24281 (46767)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$405.28

Value

$339.86

PnL

-$65.42

Record

56%

13228-10604 (23832)

Both legs:

Down$197.1658¢+$142.7

Up$208.1236.3¢-$208.12

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$405.33

Value

$361.22

PnL

-$44.11

Record

55%

6902-5661 (12563)

Both legs:

Down$260.2772.1¢+$100.95

Up$145.0631.4¢-$145.06

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$295.79

Value

$293.91

PnL

-$1.88

Record

49%

4758-4907 (9665)

Both legs:

Down$185.4963.1¢+$108.42

Up$110.320.7¢-$110.3

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$333.98

Value

$249.58

PnL

-$84.4

Record

57%

11520-8551 (20071)

Both legs:

Down$195.9378.5¢+$53.65

Up$138.0549.6¢-$138.05

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$244.66

Value

$179.22

PnL

-$65.45

Record

56%

11986-9239 (21225)

Both legs:

Down$125.1369.8¢+$54.09

Up$119.5433.6¢-$119.54

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$114.55

Value

$105

PnL

-$9.55

Record

55%

8158-6608 (14766)

Both legs:

Up$51.311.2¢-$51.3

Down$63.2560.2¢+$41.75

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$143.55

Value

$145

PnL

+$1.45

Record

93%

21903-1696 (23599)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$51.12

Value

—

PnL

-$51.12

Record

66%

97619-50176 (147795)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$124.87

Value

$129.27

PnL

+$4.4

Record

55%

43017-35460 (78477)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR

Invested

$110.63

Value

—

PnL

-$110.63

Record

55%

16665-13373 (30038)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$89.34

Value

$93.48

PnL

+$4.14

Record

60%

11693-7650 (19343)

Both legs:

Down$62.7767.1¢+$30.71

Up$26.5730.7¢-$26.57

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$108.88

Value

$100.47

PnL

-$8.41

Record

55%

23399-18958 (42357)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$88.13

Value

$100.74

PnL

+$12.61

Record

56%

57185-44208 (101393)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$64.71

Value

$65.9

PnL

+$1.19

Record

66%

110218-56576 (166794)

Both legs:

Down$34.2952¢+$31.61

Up$30.4235.1¢-$30.42

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$42.24

Value

—

PnL

-$42.24

Record

12%

17737-130549 (148286)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$75.66

Value

$77.84

PnL

+$2.18

Record

52%

88053-82440 (170493)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$85.8

Value

$60.66

PnL

-$25.14

Record

57%

9902-7404 (17306)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$32.04

Value

$65.98

PnL

+$33.94

Record

59%

37019-26207 (63226)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$27.54

Value

—

PnL

-$27.54

Record

46%

37389-43600 (80989)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$40.16

Value

—

PnL

-$40.16

Record

58%

59659-43523 (103182)

gansinimen<$100

Down

Invested

$29.65

Value

$36.6

PnL

+$6.95

Record

51%

16819-16451 (33270)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$51.6

Value

$61.56

PnL

+$9.96

Record

65%

121395-64704 (186099)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 22 top traders (59%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x18e269f9...897402

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793060100

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Down — $918.28

+$9.18

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$75.46

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $599.98

+$218.99

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$65.42

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $145

+$1.45

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