Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Up 70%
3 arb excluded
$6.5K
-$68.87
Smart Money Signal
15 of 21 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$28.92 | 56% 28747-22562 (51309) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97¢ | $623.81 | $643 | +$19.18 | 93% 21903-1696 (23599) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $397.44 | $401.45 | +$4.01 | 74% 100978-36150 (137128) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 62.3¢ | $279.41 | $284.68 | +$5.27 | 49% 4758-4907 (9665) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 62.3¢ | $224.45 | $278.3 | +$53.85 | 55% 6902-5661 (12563) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 68.1¢ | $211.11 | $271.3 | +$60.19 | 57% 9902-7404 (17306) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 54.1¢ | $240.32 | $299.85 | +$59.53 | 56% 13228-10604 (23832) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.1¢ | $162.18 | $299.85 | +$137.67 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.9¢ | $78.14 | — | -$78.14 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 41.5¢ | $176.27 | $424.26 | +$247.99 | 56% 57185-44208 (101393) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 41.4¢ | $356.84 | — | -$356.84 | 56% 7214-5573 (12787) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 69.3¢ | $216.52 | $161 | -$55.52 | 60% 11693-7650 (19343) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Upavg 74¢ | $221.97 | $299.99 | +$78.02 | 48% 22486-24281 (46767) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 69.7¢ | $185.92 | $146.69 | -$39.23 | 57% 11520-8551 (20071) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Upavg 49.2¢ | $119.9 | $143 | +$23.1 | 66% 97619-50176 (147795) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.2¢ | $70.3 | $143 | +$72.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.7¢ | $49.6 | — | -$49.6 | |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 40.4¢ | $78.98 | $75.02 | -$3.96 | 56% 11986-9239 (21225) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.4¢ | $41.47 | — | -$41.47 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $37.51 | $75.02 | +$37.51 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 61.8¢ | $38.9 | $58.11 | +$19.21 | 55% 16665-13373 (30038) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 6.4¢ | $78.9 | — | -$78.9 | 55% 8158-6608 (14766) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 61.9¢ | $29.41 | $47.52 | +$18.11 | 52% 88053-82440 (170493) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $29.58 | — | -$29.58 | 55% 23399-18958 (42357) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 40.5¢ | $16.83 | — | -$16.83 | 46% 37389-43600 (80989) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 60.7¢ | $21.3 | $35.1 | +$13.8 | 51% 19436-18664 (38100) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 38.8¢ | $13.96 | — | -$13.96 | 59% 37019-26207 (63226) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 63.7¢ | $35.81 | — | -$35.81 | 66% 110218-56576 (166794) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $9.25 | $18.49 | +$9.25 | 55% 43017-35460 (78477) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3587-2782 (6369) |
Invested
$2,863.08
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$28.92
Record
56%
28747-22562 (51309)
Invested
$623.81
Value
$643
PnL
+$19.18
Record
93%
21903-1696 (23599)
BoneOhioInvested
$397.44
Value
$401.45
PnL
+$4.01
Record
74%
100978-36150 (137128)
Invested
$279.41
Value
$284.68
PnL
+$5.27
Record
49%
4758-4907 (9665)
Invested
$224.45
Value
$278.3
PnL
+$53.85
Record
55%
6902-5661 (12563)
Invested
$211.11
Value
$271.3
PnL
+$60.19
Record
57%
9902-7404 (17306)
Invested
$240.32
Value
$299.85
PnL
+$59.53
Record
56%
13228-10604 (23832)
Both legs:
Invested
$176.27
Value
$424.26
PnL
+$247.99
Record
56%
57185-44208 (101393)
Invested
$356.84
Value
—
PnL
-$356.84
Record
56%
7214-5573 (12787)
Invested
$216.52
Value
$161
PnL
-$55.52
Record
60%
11693-7650 (19343)
Invested
$221.97
Value
$299.99
PnL
+$78.02
Record
48%
22486-24281 (46767)
Invested
$185.92
Value
$146.69
PnL
-$39.23
Record
57%
11520-8551 (20071)
Invested
$119.9
Value
$143
PnL
+$23.1
Record
66%
97619-50176 (147795)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$78.98
Value
$75.02
PnL
-$3.96
Record
56%
11986-9239 (21225)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.9
Value
$58.11
PnL
+$19.21
Record
55%
16665-13373 (30038)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$78.9
Value
—
PnL
-$78.9
Record
55%
8158-6608 (14766)
Invested
$29.41
Value
$47.52
PnL
+$18.11
Record
52%
88053-82440 (170493)
Invested
$29.58
Value
—
PnL
-$29.58
Record
55%
23399-18958 (42357)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$16.83
Value
—
PnL
-$16.83
Record
46%
37389-43600 (80989)
Invested
$21.3
Value
$35.1
PnL
+$13.8
Record
51%
19436-18664 (38100)
Invested
$13.96
Value
—
PnL
-$13.96
Record
59%
37019-26207 (63226)
Invested
$35.81
Value
—
PnL
-$35.81
Record
66%
110218-56576 (166794)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$9.25
Value
$18.49
PnL
+$9.25
Record
55%
43017-35460 (78477)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3587-2782 (6369)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Up — $2.9K
hoodquant
Up — $643
BoneOhio
Up — $401.45
ply-pm0
Up — $284.68
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $278.3
trdyugiolkw
Up — $271.3
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $424.26
wzbbb
CTRDown — $0
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $161