Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$158.18

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 21 top traders (76%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,839

Combined PnL+$514.62

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares819

Combined PnL-$356.44

Down — 76%Up — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 62.6¢	$770.82	$1.0K	+$253.95	56% 7196-5567 (12763)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 61.5¢	$589.25	$646.19	+$56.94	56% 13220-10595 (23815)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 66.3¢	$510.78	$533.53	+$22.75	49% 4751-4896 (9647)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.3¢	$353.66	$533.53	+$179.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.1¢	$157.12	—	-$157.12
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 37.7¢	$219.12	$114	-$105.12	66% 97589-50155 (147744)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.7¢	$159.84	—	-$159.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$59.28	$114	+$54.72
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 46.7¢	$247.59	—	-$247.59	59% 36998-26188 (63186)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 37.1¢	$290.2	$210.12	-$80.08	60% 11681-7645 (19326)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.4¢	$143.76	$210.12	+$66.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.1¢	$146.44	—	-$146.44
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$235.35	$236.96	+$1.61	56% 11976-9233 (21209)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.6¢	$153.13	$236.96	+$83.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.5¢	$82.21	—	-$82.21
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 77.8¢	$199.12	$255.85	+$56.74	58% 59607-43493 (103100)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 56¢	$258.97	$189.51	-$69.46	57% 11506-8544 (20050)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.1¢	$119.6	$189.51	+$69.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 56¢	$139.37	—	-$139.37
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 63.7¢	$162.45	$186.99	+$24.53	55% 6891-5655 (12546)
BoneOhio	Downavg 79.9¢	$145.32	$150.41	+$5.09	74% 100933-36124 (137057)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Downavg 71.9¢	$122.58	$109.33	-$13.25	57% 9895-7391 (17286)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.9¢	$78.58	$109.33	+$30.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 22¢	$44	—	-$44
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 77.6¢	$165.76	$111.54	-$54.22	55% 8149-6600 (14749)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.6¢	$86.54	$111.54	+$25
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.7¢	$79.22	—	-$79.22
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$62.16	—	-$62.16	12% 17734-130544 (148278)
ohioism	Downavg 76.6¢	$79.12	$103.23	+$24.11	64% 39379-22457 (61836)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 64.8¢	$59.9	$52.91	-$6.99	55% 23390-18954 (42344)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 40.8¢	$43.01	—	-$43.01	55% 16647-13358 (30005)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 69.5¢	$47.62	$68.49	+$20.87	49% 76564-79653 (156217)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$47.77	$64.96	+$17.19	46% 37365-43576 (80941)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 69.6¢	$44.39	$63.71	+$19.32	66% 110197-56555 (166752)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 80¢	$80.23	$100.29	+$20.06	56% 57139-44178 (101317)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 73.3¢	$38.04	$50.57	+$12.53	65% 20166-10990 (31156)
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 92¢	$28.92	$31.43	+$2.51	78% 9161-2651 (11812)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 75¢	$18.19	$24.25	+$6.06	65% 121312-64687 (185999)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 99¢	$9.86	$9.96	+$0.1	63% 49745-29472 (79217)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$770.82

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$253.95

Record

56%

7196-5567 (12763)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$589.25

Value

$646.19

PnL

+$56.94

Record

56%

13220-10595 (23815)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$510.78

Value

$533.53

PnL

+$22.75

Record

49%

4751-4896 (9647)

Both legs:

Down$353.6666.3¢+$179.87

Up$157.1222.1¢-$157.12

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$219.12

Value

$114

PnL

-$105.12

Record

66%

97589-50155 (147744)

Both legs:

Up$159.8437.7¢-$159.84

Down$59.2852¢+$54.72

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$247.59

Value

—

PnL

-$247.59

Record

59%

36998-26188 (63186)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$290.2

Value

$210.12

PnL

-$80.08

Record

60%

11681-7645 (19326)

Both legs:

Down$143.7668.4¢+$66.36

Up$146.4437.1¢-$146.44

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$235.35

Value

$236.96

PnL

+$1.61

Record

56%

11976-9233 (21209)

Both legs:

Down$153.1364.6¢+$83.83

Up$82.2130.5¢-$82.21

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$199.12

Value

$255.85

PnL

+$56.74

Record

58%

59607-43493 (103100)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$258.97

Value

$189.51

PnL

-$69.46

Record

57%

11506-8544 (20050)

Both legs:

Down$119.663.1¢+$69.91

Up$139.3756¢-$139.37

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$162.45

Value

$186.99

PnL

+$24.53

Record

55%

6891-5655 (12546)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$145.32

Value

$150.41

PnL

+$5.09

Record

74%

100933-36124 (137057)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$122.58

Value

$109.33

PnL

-$13.25

Record

57%

9895-7391 (17286)

Both legs:

Down$78.5871.9¢+$30.75

Up$4422¢-$44

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$165.76

Value

$111.54

PnL

-$54.22

Record

55%

8149-6600 (14749)

Both legs:

Down$86.5477.6¢+$25

Up$79.2243.7¢-$79.22

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$62.16

Value

—

PnL

-$62.16

Record

12%

17734-130544 (148278)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$79.12

Value

$103.23

PnL

+$24.11

Record

64%

39379-22457 (61836)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$59.9

Value

$52.91

PnL

-$6.99

Record

55%

23390-18954 (42344)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$43.01

Value

—

PnL

-$43.01

Record

55%

16647-13358 (30005)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$47.62

Value

$68.49

PnL

+$20.87

Record

49%

76564-79653 (156217)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$47.77

Value

$64.96

PnL

+$17.19

Record

46%

37365-43576 (80941)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$44.39

Value

$63.71

PnL

+$19.32

Record

66%

110197-56555 (166752)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$80.23

Value

$100.29

PnL

+$20.06

Record

56%

57139-44178 (101317)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$38.04

Value

$50.57

PnL

+$12.53

Record

65%

20166-10990 (31156)

NIULAI4<$100

Down

Invested

$28.92

Value

$31.43

PnL

+$2.51

Record

78%

9161-2651 (11812)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$18.19

Value

$24.25

PnL

+$6.06

Record

65%

121312-64687 (185999)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$9.86

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$0.1

Record

63%

49745-29472 (79217)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 21 top traders (76%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe3ce7de3...f8d901

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793058600

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Down — $1.0K

+$253.95

GoodFallen

Down — $646.19

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$247.59

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $255.85

+$56.74

EZTRADENL2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$69.46

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $186.99

+$24.53

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