Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 56%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$16.38

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 19 top traders (58%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,084

Combined PnL+$161.35

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares469

Combined PnL-$177.73

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$656.08	$611	-$45.08	56% 7196-5567 (12763)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.6¢	$443.54	$611	+$167.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.2¢	$212.53	—	-$212.53
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 68.2¢	$535.16	$529.29	-$5.87	49% 4751-4896 (9647)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.2¢	$361.07	$529.29	+$168.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.9¢	$174.09	—	-$174.09
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 68.7¢	$472.58	$407.28	-$65.3	56% 13220-10595 (23815)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.7¢	$280	$407.28	+$127.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.7¢	$192.58	—	-$192.58
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 28.8¢	$420.07	$175	-$245.07	55% 8149-6600 (14749)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.8¢	$287.57	—	-$287.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.7¢	$132.5	$175	+$42.5
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 68.2¢	$268.05	$331.11	+$63.06	57% 11506-8544 (20050)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 29.6¢	$214.22	$105.79	-$108.44	56% 11976-9233 (21209)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.6¢	$137.45	—	-$137.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.6¢	$76.77	$105.79	+$29.02
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 87¢	$150.58	$145.3	-$5.28	55% 6891-5655 (12546)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 78¢	$115.74	$132	+$16.26	60% 11681-7645 (19326)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 77.7¢	$126.72	$124.43	-$2.3	65% 121312-64687 (185999)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.7¢	$96.72	$124.43	+$27.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$30	—	-$30
UpandDownSyndrome	Downavg 92.5¢	$104.66	$113.17	+$8.51	63% 49745-29472 (79217)
NIULAI4	Downavg 88.5¢	$94.17	$106.46	+$12.28	78% 9161-2651 (11812)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 82.3¢	$85.66	$100.86	+$15.21	55% 23390-18954 (42344)
ohioism	Downavg 65¢	$67.1	$103.23	+$36.13	64% 39379-22457 (61836)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 70.4¢	$29.62	$42	+$12.38	66% 110197-56555 (166752)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 21.3¢	$23.44	—	-$23.44	46% 37365-43576 (80941)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 36.5¢	$20.57	—	-$20.57	66% 97589-50155 (147744)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$32.42	—	-$32.42	55% 42983-35443 (78426)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 39.5¢	$40.6	—	-$40.6	55% 16647-13358 (30005)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$14.93	—	-$14.93	59% 36998-26188 (63186)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 28.5¢	$19.36	—	-$19.36	49% 76564-79653 (156217)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 41.8¢	$20.53	—	-$16.33	65% 20166-10990 (31156)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$10.08	—	-$10.08	52% 87991-82424 (170415)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 91¢	$4.55	$5	+$0.45	93% 21872-1696 (23568)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 53¢	$2.65	$5	+$2.35	58% 50116-36275 (86391)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3586-2782 (6368)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$656.08

Value

$611

PnL

-$45.08

Record

56%

7196-5567 (12763)

Both legs:

Down$443.5472.6¢+$167.46

Up$212.5333.2¢-$212.53

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$535.16

Value

$529.29

PnL

-$5.87

Record

49%

4751-4896 (9647)

Both legs:

Down$361.0768.2¢+$168.22

Up$174.0934.9¢-$174.09

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$472.58

Value

$407.28

PnL

-$65.3

Record

56%

13220-10595 (23815)

Both legs:

Down$28068.7¢+$127.28

Up$192.5831.7¢-$192.58

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$420.07

Value

$175

PnL

-$245.07

Record

55%

8149-6600 (14749)

Both legs:

Up$287.5728.8¢-$287.57

Down$132.575.7¢+$42.5

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$268.05

Value

$331.11

PnL

+$63.06

Record

57%

11506-8544 (20050)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$214.22

Value

$105.79

PnL

-$108.44

Record

56%

11976-9233 (21209)

Both legs:

Up$137.4529.6¢-$137.45

Down$76.7772.6¢+$29.02

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$150.58

Value

$145.3

PnL

-$5.28

Record

55%

6891-5655 (12546)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$115.74

Value

$132

PnL

+$16.26

Record

60%

11681-7645 (19326)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$126.72

Value

$124.43

PnL

-$2.3

Record

65%

121312-64687 (185999)

Both legs:

Down$96.7277.7¢+$27.7

Up$3049¢-$30

UpandDownSyndrome

Down

Invested

$104.66

Value

$113.17

PnL

+$8.51

Record

63%

49745-29472 (79217)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$94.17

Value

$106.46

PnL

+$12.28

Record

78%

9161-2651 (11812)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$85.66

Value

$100.86

PnL

+$15.21

Record

55%

23390-18954 (42344)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$67.1

Value

$103.23

PnL

+$36.13

Record

64%

39379-22457 (61836)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$29.62

Value

$42

PnL

+$12.38

Record

66%

110197-56555 (166752)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$23.44

Value

—

PnL

-$23.44

Record

46%

37365-43576 (80941)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$20.57

Value

—

PnL

-$20.57

Record

66%

97589-50155 (147744)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$32.42

Value

—

PnL

-$32.42

Record

55%

42983-35443 (78426)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$40.6

Value

—

PnL

-$40.6

Record

55%

16647-13358 (30005)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$14.93

Value

—

PnL

-$14.93

Record

59%

36998-26188 (63186)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$19.36

Value

—

PnL

-$19.36

Record

49%

76564-79653 (156217)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$20.53

Value

—

PnL

-$16.33

Record

65%

20166-10990 (31156)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$10.08

Value

—

PnL

-$10.08

Record

52%

87991-82424 (170415)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$4.55

Value

PnL

+$0.45

Record

93%

21872-1696 (23568)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$2.65

Value

PnL

+$2.35

Record

58%

50116-36275 (86391)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3586-2782 (6368)

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 19 top traders (58%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3be3850c...790606

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793058000

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Down — $331.11

+$63.06

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$108.44

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $145.3

-$5.28

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $132

+$16.26

drfc4eybh7i8

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$2.3

UpandDownSyndrome

Down — $113.17

+$8.51

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