Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$78.29

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 16 top traders (50%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares629

Combined PnL-$379.52

Up8 traders

Total Value$580.67

Total Shares581

Combined PnL+$301.23

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 56¢	$197.59	$127	-$70.59	56% 7186-5551 (12737)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$145.4	—	-$145.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.1¢	$52.19	$127	+$74.81
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Downavg 62.2¢	$146.88	—	-$146.88	57% 11493-8535 (20028)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 43.4¢	$131.86	$198.28	+$66.43	55% 8140-6589 (14729)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.4¢	$85.99	$198.28	+$112.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.9¢	$45.87	—	-$45.87
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 45¢	$137.99	$179.99	+$41.99	55% 13206-10590 (23796)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45¢	$80.99	$179.99	+$98.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.3¢	$57	—	-$57
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 57.2¢	$130.93	$69.8	-$61.13	49% 4743-4885 (9628)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.2¢	$102.37	—	-$102.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.9¢	$28.56	$69.8	+$41.24
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 40.3¢	$94.22	$132	+$37.78	55% 6886-5642 (12528)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$53.24	$132	+$78.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.6¢	$40.98	—	-$40.98
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 68¢	$102.33	$107.78	+$7.35	60% 11671-7637 (19308)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.7¢	$40.61	$107.78	+$67.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 68¢	$59.83	—	-$59.83
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 38.7¢	$80.38	$165.09	+$84.71	62% 27977-17405 (45382)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 56.5¢	$92.57	—	-$92.57	66% 109413-55894 (165307)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 46.2¢	$79.61	$172.39	+$92.79	56% 11963-9227 (21190)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 67¢	$66.61	$50.7	-$15.91	65% 119555-63208 (182763)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67¢	$43.8	—	-$43.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 45¢	$22.82	$50.7	+$27.89
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 52.2¢	$57.46	—	-$57.46	59% 36938-26155 (63093)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 48.8¢	$53.19	$97	+$43.81	66% 97323-49861 (147184)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 45.5¢	$45.5	$100	+$54.5	55% 23379-18946 (42325)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Downavg 59¢	$35.4	—	-$35.4	57% 9886-7379 (17265)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 56.4¢	$21.18	—	-$21.18	65% 20113-10941 (31054)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$20	—	-$20	55% 42952-35402 (78354)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 48.5¢	$9.71	$20.03	+$10.31	58% 50034-36187 (86221)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$6.03	—	-$6.03	54% 9897-8393 (18290)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 43.7¢	$5.76	$13.18	+$7.42	49% 76421-79380 (155801)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 40.7¢	$5.28	$12.97	+$7.69	52% 87718-82041 (169759)
DE devonpoll<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	51% 19411-18640 (38051)
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3584-2782 (6366)