Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Up 87%
2 arb excluded
$3.5K
$318
Smart Money Signal
13 of 16 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 93.5¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$36.8 | 56% 7186-5551 (12737) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 78.1¢ | $323.67 | $338.49 | +$14.82 | 49% 4743-4885 (9628) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 49¢ | $116.16 | $180 | +$63.84 | 54% 9897-8393 (18290) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 73.9¢ | $123.51 | $166.95 | +$43.45 | 62% 27977-17405 (45382) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 71.4¢ | $154.39 | $197.35 | +$42.95 | 57% 11493-8535 (20028) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 90.2¢ | $141.81 | $157.3 | +$15.49 | 46% 37349-43554 (80903) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 62.1¢ | $126.29 | $112 | -$14.29 | 55% 13206-10590 (23796) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.1¢ | $69.6 | $112 | +$42.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.6¢ | $56.69 | — | -$56.69 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 66.4¢ | $98.2 | $115.17 | +$16.97 | 60% 11671-7637 (19308) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 57.2¢ | $71.5 | $124.99 | +$53.5 | 55% 8140-6589 (14729) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 84.4¢ | $81.82 | $97 | +$15.18 | 49% 76421-79380 (155801) |
AN antsaslykuARB<$100 | Upavg 64.5¢ | $77.77 | $68.31 | -$9.46 | 66% 109413-55894 (165307) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.5¢ | $44.04 | $68.31 | +$24.27 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.9¢ | $33.73 | — | -$33.73 | |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $34.63 | — | -$34.63 | 56% 11963-9227 (21190) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $29.2 | $40 | +$10.8 | 65% 20113-10941 (31054) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 46.3¢ | $25.08 | $54.13 | +$29.05 | 58% 50034-36187 (86221) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $10.6 | $20 | +$9.4 | 55% 42952-35402 (78354) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $5.04 | $6.55 | +$1.51 | 65% 3707-2000 (5707) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Downavg 8¢ | $1.12 | — | -$1.12 | 55% 6886-5642 (12528) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3584-2782 (6366) |
Invested
$1,822.2
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$36.8
Record
56%
7186-5551 (12737)
Invested
$323.67
Value
$338.49
PnL
+$14.82
Record
49%
4743-4885 (9628)
Invested
$116.16
Value
$180
PnL
+$63.84
Record
54%
9897-8393 (18290)
Invested
$123.51
Value
$166.95
PnL
+$43.45
Record
62%
27977-17405 (45382)
Invested
$154.39
Value
$197.35
PnL
+$42.95
Record
57%
11493-8535 (20028)
pspspsps5Invested
$141.81
Value
$157.3
PnL
+$15.49
Record
46%
37349-43554 (80903)
Invested
$126.29
Value
$112
PnL
-$14.29
Record
55%
13206-10590 (23796)
Both legs:
Invested
$98.2
Value
$115.17
PnL
+$16.97
Record
60%
11671-7637 (19308)
machinelearnedInvested
$71.5
Value
$124.99
PnL
+$53.5
Record
55%
8140-6589 (14729)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$81.82
Value
$97
PnL
+$15.18
Record
49%
76421-79380 (155801)
Invested
$77.77
Value
$68.31
PnL
-$9.46
Record
66%
109413-55894 (165307)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$34.63
Value
—
PnL
-$34.63
Record
56%
11963-9227 (21190)
Invested
$29.2
Value
$40
PnL
+$10.8
Record
65%
20113-10941 (31054)
Invested
$25.08
Value
$54.13
PnL
+$29.05
Record
58%
50034-36187 (86221)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$10.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$9.4
Record
55%
42952-35402 (78354)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$5.04
Value
$6.55
PnL
+$1.51
Record
65%
3707-2000 (5707)
Invested
$1.12
Value
—
PnL
-$1.12
Record
55%
6886-5642 (12528)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3584-2782 (6366)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
wzbbb
Up — $1.9K
ply-pm0
Up — $338.49
thesidehustle
Up — $180
0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b
Up — $166.95
EZTRADENL2
Up — $197.35
pspspsps5
Up — $157.3
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $115.17
machinelearned
Up — $124.99
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $97