Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 79%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$15.77

Smart Money Signal

16 of 20 top traders (80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,290

Combined PnL+$149.81

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares456

Combined PnL-$134.05

Up — 80%Down — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$20.64	56% 28648-22454 (51102)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 89.4¢	$449.26	$400.23	-$49.03	56% 7186-5551 (12737)
└ Up leg	Upavg 89.4¢	$357.6	$400.23	+$42.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.9¢	$91.66	—	-$91.66
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 78.2¢	$236.57	$242.76	+$6.19	49% 4743-4885 (9628)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 76.2¢	$205.61	$200.77	-$4.84	55% 13206-10590 (23796)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.2¢	$153.08	$200.77	+$47.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.5¢	$52.54	—	-$52.54
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 51¢	$160.01	$223.21	+$63.21	59% 36938-26155 (63093)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51¢	$113.9	$223.21	+$109.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$46.1	—	-$46.1
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 84¢	$155.58	$185.23	+$29.65	57% 11493-8535 (20028)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 20.4¢	$113.98	$50	-$63.98	55% 8140-6589 (14729)
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.4¢	$68.23	—	-$68.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 91.5¢	$45.75	$50	+$4.25
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 88.4¢	$111.92	$103.52	-$8.4	60% 11671-7637 (19308)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 85.3¢	$98.36	$111.12	+$12.76	62% 27977-17405 (45382)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 89.2¢	$82.04	$92	+$9.96	49% 76421-79380 (155801)
pspspsps5	Upavg 87.3¢	$91.48	$104.75	+$13.27	46% 37349-43554 (80903)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Downavg 47.5¢	$77.69	—	-$77.69	66% 97323-49861 (147184)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 80.5¢	$74.66	$82.99	+$11.88	55% 6886-5642 (12528)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 92¢	$79.24	$82	+$2.76	52% 87718-82041 (169759)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 21.2¢	$47.17	—	-$47.17	56% 11963-9227 (21190)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 71¢	$42.6	$60	+$17.4	57% 9886-7379 (17265)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 85.8¢	$51.47	$56.47	+$5	55% 42952-35402 (78354)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 76.5¢	$34.39	$44.93	+$10.54	65% 20113-10941 (31054)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$29.6	—	-$29.6	12% 17689-129010 (146699)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 78.6¢	$20.05	$25.52	+$5.47	55% 16610-13320 (29930)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 50¢	$12.51	$25.01	+$12.51	58% 50034-36187 (86221)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 98¢	$9.27	$9.46	+$0.19	63% 49709-29446 (79155)
TH thesidehustleCTR	Downavg 19¢	$163.59	—	+$20.41	54% 9897-8393 (18290)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3584-2782 (6366)

THG.

Invested

$2,043.57

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$20.64

Record

56%

28648-22454 (51102)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$449.26

Value

$400.23

PnL

-$49.03

Record

56%

7186-5551 (12737)

Both legs:

Up$357.689.4¢+$42.62

Down$91.6614.9¢-$91.66

ply-pm0

Invested

$236.57

Value

$242.76

PnL

+$6.19

Record

49%

4743-4885 (9628)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$205.61

Value

$200.77

PnL

-$4.84

Record

55%

13206-10590 (23796)

Both legs:

Up$153.0876.2¢+$47.69

Down$52.5421.5¢-$52.54

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$160.01

Value

$223.21

PnL

+$63.21

Record

59%

36938-26155 (63093)

Both legs:

Up$113.951¢+$109.31

Down$46.149¢-$46.1

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$155.58

Value

$185.23

PnL

+$29.65

Record

57%

11493-8535 (20028)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$113.98

Value

$50

PnL

-$63.98

Record

55%

8140-6589 (14729)

Both legs:

Down$68.2320.4¢-$68.23

Up$45.7591.5¢+$4.25

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$111.92

Value

$103.52

PnL

-$8.4

Record

60%

11671-7637 (19308)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$98.36

Value

$111.12

PnL

+$12.76

Record

62%

27977-17405 (45382)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$82.04

Value

$92

PnL

+$9.96

Record

49%

76421-79380 (155801)

pspspsps5

Invested

$91.48

Value

$104.75

PnL

+$13.27

Record

46%

37349-43554 (80903)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$77.69

Value

—

PnL

-$77.69

Record

66%

97323-49861 (147184)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$74.66

Value

$82.99

PnL

+$11.88

Record

55%

6886-5642 (12528)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$79.24

Value

$82

PnL

+$2.76

Record

52%

87718-82041 (169759)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$47.17

Value

—

PnL

-$47.17

Record

56%

11963-9227 (21190)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$42.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$17.4

Record

57%

9886-7379 (17265)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$51.47

Value

$56.47

PnL

+$5

Record

55%

42952-35402 (78354)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$34.39

Value

$44.93

PnL

+$10.54

Record

65%

20113-10941 (31054)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.6

Value

—

PnL

-$29.6

Record

12%

17689-129010 (146699)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$20.05

Value

$25.52

PnL

+$5.47

Record

55%

16610-13320 (29930)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$12.51

Value

$25.01

PnL

+$12.51

Record

58%

50034-36187 (86221)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$9.27

Value

$9.46

PnL

+$0.19

Record

63%

49709-29446 (79155)

thesidehustleCTR

Down

Invested

$163.59

Value

—

PnL

+$20.41

Record

54%

9897-8393 (18290)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3584-2782 (6366)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 20 top traders (80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa7ddb2f9...86de74

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793049600

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $2.1K

+$20.64

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$49.03

ply-pm0

Up — $242.76

+$6.19

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$4.84

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$63.21

EZTRADENL2

Up — $185.23

+$29.65

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$63.98

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $103.52

-$8.4

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Up — $111.12

+$12.76

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $92

+$9.96

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