Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$556.56

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 19 top traders (53%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,723

Combined PnL-$627.38

Up9 traders

Total Value$336.44

Total Shares336

Combined PnL+$70.82

Down — 53%Up — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$8.71	—	-$8.71	84% 56422-10398 (66820)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 77.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$96.58	56% 7186-5551 (12737)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.4¢	$923.1	$1.2K	+$269.74
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.3¢	$173.16	—	-$173.16
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 57.6¢	$248.27	—	-$248.27	55% 13206-10590 (23796)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 62.8¢	$256.55	$241.28	-$15.27	49% 4743-4885 (9628)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.8¢	$176.71	—	-$176.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.1¢	$79.85	$241.28	+$161.44
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 45.1¢	$206	$141.5	-$64.5	66% 97323-49861 (147184)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.1¢	$118.22	—	-$118.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 62¢	$87.78	$141.5	+$53.72
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Downavg 61.7¢	$148.22	—	-$148.22	57% 11493-8535 (20028)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 54.4¢	$166.77	$188.29	+$21.52	62% 27977-17405 (45382)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.7¢	$64.4	—	-$64.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.4¢	$102.37	$188.29	+$85.92
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 77.3¢	$119.19	$104.54	-$14.65	55% 8140-6589 (14729)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.3¢	$61.8	—	-$61.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.9¢	$57.38	$104.54	+$47.15
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 45.6¢	$75.4	$94.55	+$19.15	56% 11963-9227 (21190)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.4¢	$32.29	—	-$32.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.6¢	$43.11	$94.55	+$51.44
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$97.29	$128.07	+$30.78	60% 11671-7637 (19308)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.8¢	$75.29	$128.07	+$52.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$22	—	-$22
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 39.3¢	$41.41	—	-$41.41	59% 36938-26155 (63093)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$51.69	—	-$51.69	55% 23379-18946 (42325)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 98¢	$75.12	$44	-$31.02	55% 6886-5642 (12528)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$43.43	$86.76	+$43.33	12% 17689-129010 (146699)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 76¢	$48.93	—	-$48.93	56% 57126-44167 (101293)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 69.6¢	$44.98	—	-$44.98	55% 42952-35402 (78354)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 73.4¢	$29.39	—	-$29.39	66% 109413-55894 (165307)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 50¢	$25.01	$50.01	+$25.01	58% 50034-36187 (86221)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 86.5¢	$54.73	$53.22	-$1.51	49% 76421-79380 (155801)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 33.8¢	$8.84	$26.12	+$17.28	52% 87718-82041 (169759)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 79.3¢	$34.37	$39.5	+$5.13	65% 119555-63208 (182763)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 51.2¢	$10.55	$20.6	+$10.05	55% 16610-13320 (29930)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Downavg 57¢	$5.79	—	-$5.79	57% 9886-7379 (17265)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 89¢	$8.75	$9.83	+$1.08	46% 37349-43554 (80903)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 77¢	$4.92	$6.39	+$1.47	65% 3707-2000 (5707)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.71

Value

—

PnL

-$8.71

Record

84%

56422-10398 (66820)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$1,096.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$96.58

Record

56%

7186-5551 (12737)

Both legs:

Up$923.177.4¢+$269.74

Down$173.1656.3¢-$173.16

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$248.27

Value

—

PnL

-$248.27

Record

55%

13206-10590 (23796)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$256.55

Value

$241.28

PnL

-$15.27

Record

49%

4743-4885 (9628)

Both legs:

Down$176.7162.8¢-$176.71

Up$79.8533.1¢+$161.44

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$206

Value

$141.5

PnL

-$64.5

Record

66%

97323-49861 (147184)

Both legs:

Down$118.2245.1¢-$118.22

Up$87.7862¢+$53.72

EZTRADENL2CTR

Down

Invested

$148.22

Value

—

PnL

-$148.22

Record

57%

11493-8535 (20028)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$166.77

Value

$188.29

PnL

+$21.52

Record

62%

27977-17405 (45382)

Both legs:

Down$64.453.7¢-$64.4

Up$102.3754.4¢+$85.92

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$119.19

Value

$104.54

PnL

-$14.65

Record

55%

8140-6589 (14729)

Both legs:

Down$61.877.3¢-$61.8

Up$57.3854.9¢+$47.15

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$75.4

Value

$94.55

PnL

+$19.15

Record

56%

11963-9227 (21190)

Both legs:

Down$32.2948.4¢-$32.29

Up$43.1145.6¢+$51.44

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$97.29

Value

$128.07

PnL

+$30.78

Record

60%

11671-7637 (19308)

Both legs:

Up$75.2958.8¢+$52.78

Down$2250¢-$22

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$41.41

Value

—

PnL

-$41.41

Record

59%

36938-26155 (63093)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$51.69

Value

—

PnL

-$51.69

Record

55%

23379-18946 (42325)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$75.12

Value

$44

PnL

-$31.02

Record

55%

6886-5642 (12528)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$43.43

Value

$86.76

PnL

+$43.33

Record

12%

17689-129010 (146699)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$48.93

Value

—

PnL

-$48.93

Record

56%

57126-44167 (101293)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$44.98

Value

—

PnL

-$44.98

Record

55%

42952-35402 (78354)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.39

Value

—

PnL

-$29.39

Record

66%

109413-55894 (165307)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$25.01

Value

$50.01

PnL

+$25.01

Record

58%

50034-36187 (86221)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$54.73

Value

$53.22

PnL

-$1.51

Record

49%

76421-79380 (155801)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$8.84

Value

$26.12

PnL

+$17.28

Record

52%

87718-82041 (169759)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$34.37

Value

$39.5

PnL

+$5.13

Record

65%

119555-63208 (182763)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$10.55

Value

$20.6

PnL

+$10.05

Record

55%

16610-13320 (29930)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.79

Value

—

PnL

-$5.79

Record

57%

9886-7379 (17265)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$8.75

Value

$9.83

PnL

+$1.08

Record

46%

37349-43554 (80903)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$4.92

Value

$6.39

PnL

+$1.47

Record

65%

3707-2000 (5707)

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 19 top traders (53%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc94a1392...7437e5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793049300

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $0

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Down — $0

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$30.78

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