Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 56%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$15.46

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 19 top traders (53%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,832

Combined PnL+$333.62

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,051

Combined PnL-$349.08

Down — 53%Up — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$1.15	84% 56422-10398 (66820)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$534.47	$584.54	+$50.07	55% 13206-10590 (23796)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.7¢	$307.85	$584.54	+$276.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 40¢	$226.62	—	-$226.62
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 70.8¢	$436.58	$314.87	-$121.71	55% 6886-5642 (12528)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.6¢	$213.71	—	-$213.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.8¢	$222.87	$314.87	+$92
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$327.94	$284.61	-$43.33	49% 4743-4885 (9628)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.7¢	$216.16	—	-$216.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.3¢	$111.79	$284.61	+$172.83
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 75.7¢	$269.53	$213.49	-$56.03	56% 7186-5551 (12737)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.7¢	$196.53	—	-$196.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.2¢	$73	$213.49	+$140.49
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 51¢	$230.16	$450.96	+$220.8	59% 36938-26155 (63093)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$203.84	$300.91	+$97.07	56% 11963-9227 (21190)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.4¢	$148.78	$300.91	+$152.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.3¢	$55.07	—	-$55.07
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 7.2¢	$25.54	—	-$25.54	78% 9156-2645 (11801)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 35.6¢	$128.29	$237.04	+$108.85	60% 11671-7637 (19308)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.6¢	$84.38	$237.04	+$152.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.8¢	$41.66	—	-$43.8
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$100.15	$165.31	+$65.16	55% 8140-6589 (14729)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.2¢	$79.76	$165.31	+$85.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.9¢	$20.39	—	-$20.39
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 40.8¢	$99.68	—	-$99.68	57% 11493-8535 (20028)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 63.2¢	$119.06	$91.82	-$27.24	62% 27977-17405 (45382)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.2¢	$75.58	—	-$75.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.4¢	$43.48	$91.82	+$48.34
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 38.2¢	$53.06	—	-$53.06	66% 109413-55894 (165307)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$67	—	-$67	66% 97323-49861 (147184)
AA aaa221ARB<$100	Downavg 82¢	$85.62	$59.97	-$25.64	65% 20113-10941 (31054)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82¢	$49.18	$59.97	+$10.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.4¢	$36.44	—	-$36.44
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 43¢	$43.02	—	-$43.02	58% 50034-36187 (86221)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$69.87	$69.99	+$0.12	57% 9886-7379 (17265)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 96.2¢	$85.87	$89.3	+$3.43	63% 49709-29446 (79155)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 25.7¢	$16.3	—	-$16.3	58% 12359-8943 (21302)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 64.5¢	$40.11	—	-$40.11	55% 42952-35402 (78354)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 64.1¢	$39.47	$38.85	-$0.62	49% 76421-79380 (155801)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 23.8¢	$12.54	$52.63	+$40.09	64% 39322-22428 (61750)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 24¢	$12.04	$50.17	+$38.13	58% 59593-43487 (103080)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$19.75	$21.4	+$1.65	46% 37349-43554 (80903)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 21.5¢	$4.3	$20	+$15.7	65% 119555-63208 (182763)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$2,021.13

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.15

Record

84%

56422-10398 (66820)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$534.47

Value

$584.54

PnL

+$50.07

Record

55%

13206-10590 (23796)

Both legs:

Down$307.8552.7¢+$276.69

Up$226.6240¢-$226.62

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$436.58

Value

$314.87

PnL

-$121.71

Record

55%

6886-5642 (12528)

Both legs:

Up$213.7159.6¢-$213.71

Down$222.8770.8¢+$92

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$327.94

Value

$284.61

PnL

-$43.33

Record

49%

4743-4885 (9628)

Both legs:

Up$216.1658.7¢-$216.16

Down$111.7939.3¢+$172.83

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$269.53

Value

$213.49

PnL

-$56.03

Record

56%

7186-5551 (12737)

Both legs:

Up$196.5375.7¢-$196.53

Down$7334.2¢+$140.49

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$230.16

Value

$450.96

PnL

+$220.8

Record

59%

36938-26155 (63093)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$203.84

Value

$300.91

PnL

+$97.07

Record

56%

11963-9227 (21190)

Both legs:

Down$148.7849.4¢+$152.14

Up$55.0745.3¢-$55.07

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$25.54

Value

—

PnL

-$25.54

Record

78%

9156-2645 (11801)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$128.29

Value

$237.04

PnL

+$108.85

Record

60%

11671-7637 (19308)

Both legs:

Down$84.3835.6¢+$152.66

Up$41.6644.8¢-$43.8

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$100.15

Value

$165.31

PnL

+$65.16

Record

55%

8140-6589 (14729)

Both legs:

Down$79.7648.2¢+$85.55

Up$20.3914.9¢-$20.39

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$99.68

Value

—

PnL

-$99.68

Record

57%

11493-8535 (20028)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$119.06

Value

$91.82

PnL

-$27.24

Record

62%

27977-17405 (45382)

Both legs:

Up$75.5863.2¢-$75.58

Down$43.4847.4¢+$48.34

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$53.06

Value

—

PnL

-$53.06

Record

66%

109413-55894 (165307)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$67

Value

—

PnL

-$67

Record

66%

97323-49861 (147184)

aaa221ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$85.62

Value

$59.97

PnL

-$25.64

Record

65%

20113-10941 (31054)

Both legs:

Down$49.1882¢+$10.79

Up$36.4472.4¢-$36.44

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$43.02

Value

—

PnL

-$43.02

Record

58%

50034-36187 (86221)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$69.87

Value

$69.99

PnL

+$0.12

Record

57%

9886-7379 (17265)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$85.87

Value

$89.3

PnL

+$3.43

Record

63%

49709-29446 (79155)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$16.3

Value

—

PnL

-$16.3

Record

58%

12359-8943 (21302)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$40.11

Value

—

PnL

-$40.11

Record

55%

42952-35402 (78354)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$39.47

Value

$38.85

PnL

-$0.62

Record

49%

76421-79380 (155801)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$12.54

Value

$52.63

PnL

+$40.09

Record

64%

39322-22428 (61750)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$12.04

Value

$50.17

PnL

+$38.13

Record

58%

59593-43487 (103080)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$19.75

Value

$21.4

PnL

+$1.65

Record

46%

37349-43554 (80903)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$4.3

Value

$20

PnL

+$15.7

Record

65%

119555-63208 (182763)

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 19 top traders (53%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x5e8539c4...acfb3b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793049000

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $2.0K

+$1.15

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$50.07

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $450.96

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Up — $0

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded