Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$7.0K
$-1.0K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 29 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$23.12 | 56% 28626-22433 (51059) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 59.9¢ | $931.17 | $1.1K | +$187.4 | 56% 7167-5546 (12713) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 62.4¢ | $852.82 | $902.13 | +$49.32 | 49% 4731-4878 (9609) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 36.9¢ | $965.43 | — | -$965.43 | 55% 13162-10567 (23729) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 54.6¢ | $554.82 | $545.03 | -$9.79 | 56% 11950-9222 (21172) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 68.3¢ | $368.05 | $374.51 | +$9.71 | 60% 11663-7629 (19292) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 75.7¢ | $350.11 | $347.01 | -$3.09 | 55% 6879-5633 (12512) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 65.6¢ | $211.88 | $245.43 | +$33.56 | 57% 11465-8497 (19962) |
AN antsaslykuCTR | Upavg 46.9¢ | $263.84 | — | -$263.84 | 66% 109300-55693 (164993) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $174.7 | $209.64 | +$34.94 | 78% 9152-2643 (11795) |
ST std0 | Downavg 61.4¢ | $225.56 | $211.15 | -$14.41 | 67% 52231-25955 (78186) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 47.3¢ | $185.36 | $237.86 | +$52.49 | 59% 36902-26123 (63025) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.3¢ | $112.41 | $237.86 | +$125.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.1¢ | $72.95 | — | -$72.95 | |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR | Upavg 42.6¢ | $211.2 | — | -$211.2 | 57% 9873-7375 (17248) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $136.47 | $139.25 | +$2.78 | 93% 21764-1691 (23455) |
SI sir-upalot | Downavg 69.3¢ | $109.17 | $104.17 | -$5 | 55% 23059-18642 (41701) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $76.19 | $75.58 | -$0.61 | 55% 8130-6582 (14712) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 65.5¢ | $60.12 | $60 | +$14.32 | 65% 20047-10914 (30961) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $34.82 | $70 | +$35.18 | 65% 119380-63148 (182528) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 52.3¢ | $52.3 | — | -$52.3 | 55% 16550-13280 (29830) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $43.6 | — | -$43.6 | 49% 76371-79329 (155700) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 96.4¢ | $30.53 | $31.68 | +$1.15 | 63% 49651-29409 (79060) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 89.2¢ | $25.87 | $28.99 | +$3.12 | 55% 42897-35362 (78259) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 47.4¢ | $13.83 | — | -$13.83 | 46% 37328-43529 (80857) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $10 | +$5.3 | 66% 97209-49787 (146996) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $2 | $5 | +$3 | 52% 87624-81970 (169594) |
Invested
$2,289.25
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$23.12
Record
56%
28626-22433 (51059)
Invested
$931.17
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$187.4
Record
56%
7167-5546 (12713)
Invested
$852.82
Value
$902.13
PnL
+$49.32
Record
49%
4731-4878 (9609)
Invested
$965.43
Value
—
PnL
-$965.43
Record
55%
13162-10567 (23729)
FairValueMachineInvested
$554.82
Value
$545.03
PnL
-$9.79
Record
56%
11950-9222 (21172)
Invested
$368.05
Value
$374.51
PnL
+$9.71
Record
60%
11663-7629 (19292)
Invested
$350.11
Value
$347.01
PnL
-$3.09
Record
55%
6879-5633 (12512)
Invested
$211.88
Value
$245.43
PnL
+$33.56
Record
57%
11465-8497 (19962)
Invested
$263.84
Value
—
PnL
-$263.84
Record
66%
109300-55693 (164993)
NIULAI4Invested
$174.7
Value
$209.64
PnL
+$34.94
Record
78%
9152-2643 (11795)
Invested
$225.56
Value
$211.15
PnL
-$14.41
Record
67%
52231-25955 (78186)
Invested
$185.36
Value
$237.86
PnL
+$52.49
Record
59%
36902-26123 (63025)
Both legs:
Invested
$211.2
Value
—
PnL
-$211.2
Record
57%
9873-7375 (17248)
Invested
$136.47
Value
$139.25
PnL
+$2.78
Record
93%
21764-1691 (23455)
Invested
$109.17
Value
$104.17
PnL
-$5
Record
55%
23059-18642 (41701)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$76.19
Value
$75.58
PnL
-$0.61
Record
55%
8130-6582 (14712)
Invested
$60.12
Value
$60
PnL
+$14.32
Record
65%
20047-10914 (30961)
Invested
$34.82
Value
$70
PnL
+$35.18
Record
65%
119380-63148 (182528)
Invested
$52.3
Value
—
PnL
-$52.3
Record
55%
16550-13280 (29830)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$43.6
Value
—
PnL
-$43.6
Record
49%
76371-79329 (155700)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$30.53
Value
$31.68
PnL
+$1.15
Record
63%
49651-29409 (79060)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$25.87
Value
$28.99
PnL
+$3.12
Record
55%
42897-35362 (78259)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$13.83
Value
—
PnL
-$13.83
Record
46%
37328-43529 (80857)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.3
Record
66%
97209-49787 (146996)
Invested
$2
Value
$5
PnL
+$3
Record
52%
87624-81970 (169594)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Down — $2.3K
wzbbb
Down — $1.1K
ply-pm0
Down — $902.13
GoodFallen
CTRUp — $0
FairValueMachine
Down — $545.03
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $374.51
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $347.01
EZTRADENL2
Down — $245.43
antsaslyku
CTRUp — $0
NIULAI4
Down — $209.64