Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET

Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 85%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$533.51

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,535

Combined PnL+$557.84

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares213

Combined PnL-$24.34

Up — 81%Down — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 38.6¢	$468.36	$360.44	-$107.92	55% 13162-10567 (23729)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.7¢	$193.45	$360.44	+$166.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.6¢	$274.91	—	-$274.91
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$230.52	$350.15	+$119.63	56% 7167-5546 (12713)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$178.97	$350.15	+$171.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.6¢	$51.56	—	-$51.56
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 49.2¢	$275.28	$280.37	+$5.09	66% 109300-55693 (164993)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$138.06	$280.37	+$142.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.9¢	$137.22	—	-$137.22
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 65.3¢	$296.67	$252.05	-$44.62	49% 4731-4878 (9609)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.3¢	$164.72	$252.05	+$87.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$131.96	—	-$131.96
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 42.7¢	$269.84	$208.62	-$61.22	56% 11950-9222 (21172)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.1¢	$108.79	$208.62	+$99.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.7¢	$161.05	—	-$161.05
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 43¢	$177.13	$411.51	+$234.38	59% 36902-26123 (63025)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$236.3	$186.71	-$49.59	55% 48631-39531 (88162)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.9¢	$128.61	$186.71	+$58.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.5¢	$107.69	—	-$107.69
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 86.4¢	$210.29	$205.74	-$4.55	55% 6879-5633 (12512)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 48.4¢	$124.77	$219.98	+$95.21	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
machinelearned	Upavg 59.1¢	$141.8	$208.35	+$66.54	55% 8130-6582 (14712)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 78.9¢	$168.62	$158.73	-$9.89	67% 52231-25955 (78186)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.9¢	$125.25	$158.73	+$33.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.7¢	$43.37	—	-$43.37
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 53¢	$96.92	$120	+$23.08	66% 97209-49787 (146996)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 92¢	$93	$101.09	+$8.09	57% 9873-7375 (17248)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$67.24	$49.35	-$17.89	60% 11663-7629 (19292)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37¢	$18.26	$49.35	+$31.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.5¢	$48.98	—	-$48.98
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 87.1¢	$73.68	$84.61	+$10.93	55% 23059-18642 (41701)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 91.4¢	$67.41	$67.82	+$0.41	52% 87624-81970 (169594)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 2.9¢	$5.58	—	-$5.58	46% 37328-43529 (80857)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 63.4¢	$28.54	$40.01	+$11.47	49% 76371-79329 (155700)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$27.73	$55.84	+$28.11	65% 20047-10914 (30961)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 92¢	$18.5	$20.11	+$1.61	55% 16550-13280 (29830)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 60¢	$18.76	—	-$18.76	55% 42897-35362 (78259)
AC ACETONE999ME	Upavg 65¢	$157.84	$0	+$82.56	62% 83-51 (134)
DE devonpoll<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	51% 19388-18619 (38007)
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3580-2780 (6360)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$468.36

Value

$360.44

PnL

-$107.92

Record

55%

13162-10567 (23729)

Both legs:

Up$193.4553.7¢+$166.99

Down$274.9138.6¢-$274.91

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$230.52

Value

$350.15

PnL

+$119.63

Record

56%

7167-5546 (12713)

Both legs:

Up$178.9751.1¢+$171.18

Down$51.5615.6¢-$51.56

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$275.28

Value

$280.37

PnL

+$5.09

Record

66%

109300-55693 (164993)

Both legs:

Up$138.0649.2¢+$142.31

Down$137.2244.9¢-$137.22

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$296.67

Value

$252.05

PnL

-$44.62

Record

49%

4731-4878 (9609)

Both legs:

Up$164.7265.3¢+$87.34

Down$131.9640.7¢-$131.96

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$269.84

Value

$208.62

PnL

-$61.22

Record

56%

11950-9222 (21172)

Both legs:

Up$108.7952.1¢+$99.83

Down$161.0542.7¢-$161.05

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$177.13

Value

$411.51

PnL

+$234.38

Record

59%

36902-26123 (63025)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$236.3

Value

$186.71

PnL

-$49.59

Record

55%

48631-39531 (88162)

Both legs:

Up$128.6168.9¢+$58.1

Down$107.6952.5¢-$107.69

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$210.29

Value

$205.74

PnL

-$4.55

Record

55%

6879-5633 (12512)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$124.77

Value

$219.98

PnL

+$95.21

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

machinelearned

Invested

$141.8

Value

$208.35

PnL

+$66.54

Record

55%

8130-6582 (14712)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$168.62

Value

$158.73

PnL

-$9.89

Record

67%

52231-25955 (78186)

Both legs:

Up$125.2578.9¢+$33.48

Down$43.3724.7¢-$43.37

Bonereaper

Invested

$96.92

Value

$120

PnL

+$23.08

Record

66%

97209-49787 (146996)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$93

Value

$101.09

PnL

+$8.09

Record

57%

9873-7375 (17248)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$67.24

Value

$49.35

PnL

-$17.89

Record

60%

11663-7629 (19292)

Both legs:

Up$18.2637¢+$31.08

Down$48.9843.5¢-$48.98

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$73.68

Value

$84.61

PnL

+$10.93

Record

55%

23059-18642 (41701)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$67.41

Value

$67.82

PnL

+$0.41

Record

52%

87624-81970 (169594)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.58

Value

—

PnL

-$5.58

Record

46%

37328-43529 (80857)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$28.54

Value

$40.01

PnL

+$11.47

Record

49%

76371-79329 (155700)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$27.73

Value

$55.84

PnL

+$28.11

Record

65%

20047-10914 (30961)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$18.5

Value

$20.11

PnL

+$1.61

Record

55%

16550-13280 (29830)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.76

Value

—

PnL

-$18.76

Record

55%

42897-35362 (78259)

ACETONE999ME

Invested

$157.84

Value

PnL

+$82.56

Record

62%

83-51 (134)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19388-18619 (38007)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3580-2780 (6360)

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x99de172c...3e821b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793047800

Traders in this Market

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

antsaslyku

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $411.51

+$234.38

mo-money

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$49.59

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $205.74

-$4.55

EZTRADENL2

Up — $219.98

+$95.21

machinelearned

Up — $208.35

+$66.54

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