Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Up 64%
1 arb excluded
$5.3K
-$435.96
Smart Money Signal
19 of 30 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 69.6¢ | $966.37 | $909.15 | -$57.21 | 49% 4731-4878 (9609) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.6¢ | $894.9 | $907.8 | +$12.9 | 93% 21764-1691 (23455) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 53.9¢ | $815.43 | $839.46 | +$24.03 | 55% 13162-10567 (23729) |
AN antsaslykuCTR | Downavg 42.5¢ | $626.97 | — | -$626.97 | 66% 109300-55693 (164993) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 34¢ | $443.1 | — | -$443.1 | 56% 11950-9222 (21172) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 45.4¢ | $267.68 | $302.55 | +$34.88 | 55% 8130-6582 (14712) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $237.63 | $347.05 | +$109.43 | 57% 11465-8497 (19962) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 63¢ | $547.27 | — | -$547.27 | 55% 48631-39531 (88162) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 73.2¢ | $255.24 | $289.78 | +$34.54 | 78% 9152-2643 (11795) |
ST std0 | Upavg 57.4¢ | $225.39 | $213.36 | -$12.03 | 67% 52231-25955 (78186) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 45.4¢ | $472.79 | $133.4 | -$339.39 | 56% 7167-5546 (12713) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61¢ | $81.35 | $133.4 | +$52.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.4¢ | $391.43 | — | -$391.43 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 47.4¢ | $158.73 | $176.25 | +$20.98 | 55% 6879-5633 (12512) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Upavg 47¢ | $141 | $300 | +$159 | 49% 21579-22285 (43864) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 72.5¢ | $154.01 | $154.75 | +$0.74 | 60% 11663-7629 (19292) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 47.4¢ | $141 | $260.03 | +$119.04 | 59% 36902-26123 (63025) |
SI sir-upalot | Upavg 80.2¢ | $142.84 | $103.45 | -$39.39 | 55% 23059-18642 (41701) |
 UpandDownSyndrome | Upavg 95.7¢ | $99.55 | $104.02 | +$4.47 | 63% 49651-29409 (79060) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $97.31 | — | -$97.31 | 66% 97209-49787 (146996) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 43.9¢ | $62.7 | $142.73 | +$80.03 | 55% 16550-13280 (29830) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 65.4¢ | $59.76 | — | -$59.76 | 55% 42897-35362 (78259) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 20.5¢ | $24.78 | — | -$24.78 | 46% 37328-43529 (80857) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $23.67 | — | -$23.67 | 49% 76371-79329 (155700) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 60.8¢ | $42.6 | $52.18 | +$12.29 | 65% 20047-10914 (30961) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $45.72 | $51.37 | +$5.65 | 58% 59354-43324 (102678) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 41.7¢ | $9.4 | $22.55 | +$13.15 | 52% 87624-81970 (169594) |
Invested
$966.37
Value
$909.15
PnL
-$57.21
Record
49%
4731-4878 (9609)
Invested
$894.9
Value
$907.8
PnL
+$12.9
Record
93%
21764-1691 (23455)
Invested
$815.43
Value
$839.46
PnL
+$24.03
Record
55%
13162-10567 (23729)
Invested
$626.97
Value
—
PnL
-$626.97
Record
66%
109300-55693 (164993)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$443.1
Value
—
PnL
-$443.1
Record
56%
11950-9222 (21172)
machinelearnedInvested
$267.68
Value
$302.55
PnL
+$34.88
Record
55%
8130-6582 (14712)
Invested
$237.63
Value
$347.05
PnL
+$109.43
Record
57%
11465-8497 (19962)
Invested
$547.27
Value
—
PnL
-$547.27
Record
55%
48631-39531 (88162)
NIULAI4Invested
$255.24
Value
$289.78
PnL
+$34.54
Record
78%
9152-2643 (11795)
Invested
$225.39
Value
$213.36
PnL
-$12.03
Record
67%
52231-25955 (78186)
Invested
$472.79
Value
$133.4
PnL
-$339.39
Record
56%
7167-5546 (12713)
Both legs:
Invested
$158.73
Value
$176.25
PnL
+$20.98
Record
55%
6879-5633 (12512)
Invested
$141
Value
$300
PnL
+$159
Record
49%
21579-22285 (43864)
Invested
$154.01
Value
$154.75
PnL
+$0.74
Record
60%
11663-7629 (19292)
Invested
$141
Value
$260.03
PnL
+$119.04
Record
59%
36902-26123 (63025)
Invested
$142.84
Value
$103.45
PnL
-$39.39
Record
55%
23059-18642 (41701)
UpandDownSyndromeInvested
$99.55
Value
$104.02
PnL
+$4.47
Record
63%
49651-29409 (79060)
Invested
$97.31
Value
—
PnL
-$97.31
Record
66%
97209-49787 (146996)
Invested
$62.7
Value
$142.73
PnL
+$80.03
Record
55%
16550-13280 (29830)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$59.76
Value
—
PnL
-$59.76
Record
55%
42897-35362 (78259)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$24.78
Value
—
PnL
-$24.78
Record
46%
37328-43529 (80857)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$23.67
Value
—
PnL
-$23.67
Record
49%
76371-79329 (155700)
Invested
$42.6
Value
$52.18
PnL
+$12.29
Record
65%
20047-10914 (30961)
Invested
$45.72
Value
$51.37
PnL
+$5.65
Record
58%
59354-43324 (102678)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$22.55
PnL
+$13.15
Record
52%
87624-81970 (169594)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm0
Up — $909.15
hoodquant
Up — $907.8
GoodFallen
Up — $839.46
antsaslyku
CTRDown — $0
FairValueMachine
CTRDown — $0
machinelearned
Up — $302.55
EZTRADENL2
Up — $347.05
mo-money
CTRDown — $0
NIULAI4
Up — $289.78
std0
Up — $213.36