Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 86%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 29 top traders (86%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down25 traders

Total Value$16.2K

Total Shares16,163

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares12,341

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Down — 86%Up — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	+$17.08	52% 267-242 (509)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.9¢	$3.0K	$5.2K	+$2.3K
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.3¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.2K
BI bisonarctic	Downavg 74.7¢	$4.1K	$5.6K	+$1.4K	52% 14-13 (27)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 92.9¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$167.96	56% 7167-5546 (12713)
RO royalanchor02CTR	Upavg 19.4¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.4K	54% 38-32 (70)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 86.1¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$139.97	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Upavg 28.3¢	$874.41	$731.84	-$142.57	65% 3701-1998 (5699)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.5¢	$333.3	$731.84	+$398.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.3¢	$541.11	—	-$541.11
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$759.33	$767	+$7.67	93% 21764-1691 (23455)
machinelearned	Downavg 79.6¢	$809.75	$728.25	-$81.5	55% 8130-6582 (14712)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Upavg 23.2¢	$717.24	$442.82	-$274.42	53% 1932-1746 (3678)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.7¢	$202.32	$442.82	+$240.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.2¢	$514.92	—	-$514.92
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 75.7¢	$602.18	$550.66	-$51.52	49% 4731-4878 (9609)
pspspsps5	Downavg 82.9¢	$418.26	$462.08	+$43.82	46% 37328-43529 (80857)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 65¢	$442.68	$420	-$22.68	57% 11465-8497 (19962)
ST std0	Downavg 84.3¢	$482.03	$415.42	-$66.61	67% 52231-25955 (78186)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 54.4¢	$315.22	$392.07	+$76.85	55% 13162-10567 (23729)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$328.02	$331.33	+$3.31	56% 28626-22433 (51059)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 73.3¢	$328.11	$335.26	+$10	55% 6879-5633 (12512)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 84.4¢	$217.48	$248.84	+$31.37	49% 76371-79329 (155700)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 66.1¢	$219.03	$210	-$9.03	55% 42897-35362 (78259)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 62¢	$200.97	$196.44	-$4.53	66% 109300-55693 (164993)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$170.28	$206.36	+$36.08	56% 11950-9222 (21172)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.2¢	$89.21	$206.36	+$117.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 54¢	$81.07	—	-$81.07
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 71.6¢	$116.3	$160.7	+$44.4	55% 16550-13280 (29830)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 63.6¢	$134.46	$139.6	+$5.14	55% 23059-18642 (41701)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 71¢	$141	$120	-$21	57% 9873-7375 (17248)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 48¢	$100.34	$209.03	+$108.7	59% 36902-26123 (63025)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 76.5¢	$118.66	$88	-$30.66	60% 11663-7629 (19292)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.5¢	$67.32	$88	+$20.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.8¢	$51.34	—	-$51.34

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,206.76

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$17.08

Record

52%

267-242 (509)

Both legs:

Down$2,973.7256.9¢+$2.3K

Up$2,233.0322.3¢$-2.2K

bisonarctic

Down

Invested

$4,148.32

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

52%

14-13 (27)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$3,436.04

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$167.96

Record

56%

7167-5546 (12713)

royalanchor02CTR

Invested

$2,367.11

Value

—

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

54%

38-32 (70)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$1,227.95

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$139.97

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Invested

$874.41

Value

$731.84

PnL

-$142.57

Record

65%

3701-1998 (5699)

Both legs:

Down$333.345.5¢+$398.54

Up$541.1128.3¢-$541.11

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$759.33

Value

$767

PnL

+$7.67

Record

93%

21764-1691 (23455)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$809.75

Value

$728.25

PnL

-$81.5

Record

55%

8130-6582 (14712)

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Invested

$717.24

Value

$442.82

PnL

-$274.42

Record

53%

1932-1746 (3678)

Both legs:

Down$202.3245.7¢+$240.5

Up$514.9223.2¢-$514.92

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$602.18

Value

$550.66

PnL

-$51.52

Record

49%

4731-4878 (9609)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$418.26

Value

$462.08

PnL

+$43.82

Record

46%

37328-43529 (80857)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$442.68

Value

$420

PnL

-$22.68

Record

57%

11465-8497 (19962)

std0

Down

Invested

$482.03

Value

$415.42

PnL

-$66.61

Record

67%

52231-25955 (78186)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$315.22

Value

$392.07

PnL

+$76.85

Record

55%

13162-10567 (23729)

THG.

Down

Invested

$328.02

Value

$331.33

PnL

+$3.31

Record

56%

28626-22433 (51059)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$328.11

Value

$335.26

PnL

+$10

Record

55%

6879-5633 (12512)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$217.48

Value

$248.84

PnL

+$31.37

Record

49%

76371-79329 (155700)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$219.03

Value

$210

PnL

-$9.03

Record

55%

42897-35362 (78259)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$200.97

Value

$196.44

PnL

-$4.53

Record

66%

109300-55693 (164993)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$170.28

Value

$206.36

PnL

+$36.08

Record

56%

11950-9222 (21172)

Both legs:

Down$89.2143.2¢+$117.15

Up$81.0754¢-$81.07

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$116.3

Value

$160.7

PnL

+$44.4

Record

55%

16550-13280 (29830)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$134.46

Value

$139.6

PnL

+$5.14

Record

55%

23059-18642 (41701)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$141

Value

$120

PnL

-$21

Record

57%

9873-7375 (17248)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$100.34

Value

$209.03

PnL

+$108.7

Record

59%

36902-26123 (63025)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$118.66

Value

$88

PnL

-$30.66

Record

60%

11663-7629 (19292)

Both legs:

Down$67.3276.5¢+$20.68

Up$51.3427.8¢-$51.34

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 29 top traders (86%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1b00bef1...102d1d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793047200

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$17.08

bisonarctic

Down — $5.6K

+$1.4K

wzbbb

Down — $3.6K

+$167.96

royalanchor02

CTR

Up — $0

$-2.4K

thesidehustle

Down — $1.1K

-$139.97

Atomforge

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$142.57

hoodquant

Down — $767

+$7.67

machinelearned

Down — $728.25

-$81.5

0xdc27...afdd9a

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$274.42

ply-pm0

Down — $550.66

-$51.52

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